The Cleveland Guardians (10-5) visit the Boston Red Sox (9-7) and Fenway Park Monday to begin a 4-Game series, starting with the annual “Patriots’ Day” matinee during the Boston Marathon. First pitch is scheduled for 11:10 a.m. ET (MLB Network. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2024; they split 3-3 in 2023
Boston beat the visiting Los Angeles Angels 5-4 Sunday to take the weekend series 2-1. Unlike the first 2 games — an L.A. 7-0 opening win and a Boston 7-2 victory Saturday — this one was close. The Red Sox built a 5-2 lead behind 3 HRs (OF Tyler O’Neill, 1B Triston Casas, DH Masataka Yoshida) before the Angels scored a run apiece in the 8th and 9th innings. Boston closer Kenley Jansen allowed the first 3 batters to reach in the top of the 9th before inducing a sacrifice fly — that cut the lead to 5-4 — and striking out the next 2 batters to secure Boston’s victory as a -129 favorite with the Under (10) cashing by a run.
Blown saves was the story in Sunday’s Cleveland’s 8-7, 10-inning home win vs. the New York Yankees. The Guardians, who were +110 underdogs, led 5-4 in the top of the 9th before Yankees SS Anthony Volpe’s 2-out, RBI double off closer Emmanuel Clase tied it. New York would score 2 in the top of the 10th (1B Anthony Rizzo 2-run single), but the Guardians plated 3 in the bottom half (2 fielders’ choice groundouts and a sacrifice fly) off Yankees LHP Caleb Ferguson to snap a 2-game skid and avoid a 3-game sweep. 3B Jose Ramirez singled and 1B/C David Fry doubled in the winning rally. The Over (8.5) had hit by the 5th inning.
Guardians at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Xzavion Curry vs. RHP Kutter Crawford
Curry makes his 1st start this season. He was 3-4 with a 4.07 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 across 95 innings (9 starts and 32 relief appearances) last season.
- Career vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 1.93 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 2 relief outings last year
- 2023 road splits: 1-3, 5.53 ERA (40 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 5.3 K/9 in 20 games, including 4 starts
- Allowed a .258% slugging in March/April 2023 (6 games, 18 IP), his lowest monthly split in 2023
Crawford (0-0, 0.57 ERA) makes his 4th start of the season. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 15 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 6 K in Red Sox 7-5 loss to visiting Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
- Career vs. Guardians: 0-2, 5.52 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 9 ER) in 4 outings (3 starts), including 0-1, 3.86 ERA (7 IP, 3 ER) in 2 appearances (1 start) last season
- Hasn’t allowed an HR this season
- Hasn’t allowed a hit when batter is ahead in the count — 0-for-13 — but has walked 8 in 22 plate appearances in same situation
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Guardians at Red Sox nickname odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Guardians at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Red Sox 2
Moneyline
While it is early in the season, the trends heavily favor the Guardians Monday. Cleveland is 7-2 on the road, including 4-0 straight up (SU) as a road underdog, while Boston is 2-4 at home, including 1-2 SU as a home favorite.
The Guardians are also 6-3 SU after a win.
With this data, I like the value of Cleveland at plus money.
BET GUARDIANS (+105).
Run line/Against the spread
While I like Cleveland straight up, picking them at +1.5 loses a ton of value. PASS here and stick with a moneyline wager.
Over/Under
Home runs have been hard to come by for Cleveland so far this season. Per team rankings, they’re averaging 0.93 a game, which ranks 21st in MLB. Fortunately, their pitching has made it difficult for their opponents. The Guardians have allowed the fewest homers at 0.50 a game.
Given the relatively high line for this Game and where the juice is, I am going to follow the books and pick the Under.
LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-120).
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