Champions League bold predictions: Barcelona to win it all, Erling Haaland tops Cristiano Ronaldo goal record

The Champions League is back, looking rather different with a 36-team league phase that sets every team off on the path to Munich. The next eight games will decide who reaches the last 16, who gets into a playoff and whose European campaign ends in January. Remember, you can read our predictions for every one of the 144 league games here. To get the continental season off and running, though, let's go big and nail our colors to the mast with a potential winner.  

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Barcelona win the Champions League

The algorithms, the betting markets and the gut feelings of most supporters around the world say much the same thing on the eve of this new Champions League. The competition is probably going to be won by one of Real Madrid or Manchester City. It's easy to see why one might reach that conclusion. The holders have added Kylian Mbappe, the 2023 champions still have Erling Haaland, Rodri and Pep Guardiola.

But look, the headline is the clue here. This isn't anodyne predictions. Let's go for it. Oh, and by the way, Manchester City might just be a Haaland injury away from a sizable hole at center forward that either Kevin De Bruyne or Phil Foden might have to awkwardly fill. Madrid might have attacking depth in abundance but configuring into an XI that gets the best out of every component is going to be a challenge even for Carlo Ancelotti.

Anyway it is not as if they were necessarily that much better last season than the field. Their Champions League campaign was classic Madrid: a last gasp triumph against Bayern Munich that might once have been implausible but is now tediously predictable, wobbles aplenty against RB Leipzig, City and even Dortmund. As for La Liga, their 10 point winning margin was deceptive. Their underlying xG suggests they did enough to be champions but by an altogether finer margin over Barcelona than the table suggested.

In league and Europe it rather seemed like all the breaks that went Madrid's way didn't favor Barcelona. Xavi's men were the victims of a fair but extremely firm red card that doomed them to defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the quarters while impressive performances against their nearest rivals in La Liga had a way of resulting in no points. Then there were the injuries, a remorseless cavalcade of knocks, setbacks and quite serious issues that meant come the end of the season the only outfield players to make it through the campaign unscathed were Ilkay Gundogan and Fermin Lopez. Having La Liga's best xG difference in a season where Frenkie De Jong, Pedri and Gavi barely cleared 3,000 minutes combined is an impressive achievement indeed.

The worry is that new management hasn't brought an answer to what ails Barcelona bodies. De Jong and Gavi remain sidelined as are center backs Andreas Christensen and Ronald Araujo. Monday's revelation that Dani Olmo will miss four to five weeks was not a shock given the issues the star of Euro 2024 has faced so far in his career, but it was another heavy setback for a player who has started life well for Barcelona.

Part of the case for picking Barcelona is a gamble on the bulk of their squad getting and staying fit. That would certainly make for a scary prospect for opposition: a midfield capable of adapting its tempo, an athletic back line, depth in attack even without a prime forward quite on Mbappe or Haaland's level (though if Robert Lewandowski keeps putting up 0.84 non-penalty expected goals per 90 that statement might need reassessing). Indeed without key starters they have still made an extremely bright start to Hansi Flick's tenure, putting Girona to the sword on Sunday in a statement 4-1 win over their Catalan rivals. Lamine Yamal was the start of that triumph, a fortnight earlier it had been a Raphinha seemingly revived by new management, before then Lewandowski. There are weapons aplenty in this side.

That, after all, is why in the extremely formative days of this new European season, Barcelona's xG difference per Game of 1.8 is a fair way ahead of the rest of the field (in what has hardly been a pat-a-cake schedule so far to Flick). There might be question marks over their talent at the very highest level, a coach who it was retrospectively suggested was a bystander in his Champions League triumph and most of all over this squad's propensity for injuries. But so far this season, they are playing the best Football on the continent. Why shouldn't that sort of team win the Champions League?

Celtic reach the knockout rounds

If you haven't already, please do take a look at our predictions for every single game of the league phase. Remember, no matter how long it might take for you to read it, it took much longer to assemble it. In no small part that is down to the numerous redrafts that were required every time the results were tabulated and Celtic found to be firmly ensconced in the grouping of 16 teams that will advance to the first elimination round. This is a team that hasn't played knockout Champions League football in over a decade and has won three of their last 30 games in the competition proper. Still, no matter how many times those predictions were redrafted, the Scottish champions found themselves bound for the big time.

It is worth noting from the off that Brendan Rodgers' men have started the new season as well as could reasonably be expected. Five league games, five wins, 14 goals for, none against. Big names such as Joe Hart and, in particular, Matt O'Riley might have moved on, but the recruitment department at Celtic have won the benefit of the doubt and the latter's sale has funded additions such as Arne Engels and Paulo Bernardo, both of whom have hit the ground running. This seems a squad as ready for Europe as their manager says they are.

"I'm really excited by it," said Rodgers after a 2-0 win over Hearts at the weekend. "I think we've got good balance in the squad. We've got areas I would want to improve later on, but we've done a hell of a lot of work and real, real good work over the course of the summer.

"The mindset is strong. We're ready to attack the competition. We know the level we're playing at, but it's okay. We will go and we'll give it everything."

In spite of everything above though, the reality is that Celtic look like a team that can reach the knockout stage for no reason other than an extremely kind draw. According to Opta, they have the easiest draw of any team in the competition, starting on Wednesday against a Slovan Bratislava side whose squad value is about five times less than their hosts. Then the likes of Dinamo Zagreb, Club Brugge and Young Boys lie in wait for them ahead of what could be a thrilling final day clash against Aston Villa.

The home games look particularly favorable. Hosting RB Leipzig from Pot One and Club Brugge from Pot Two was almost as good as it might have got for Celtic and that really matters because while this team is pretty dire on their European travels, their performances at Parkhead often belie their points return. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, their Champions League record at Celtic Park, including qualifiers, reads won two, drawn three and lost four.

The deeper you dig, however, the better it might have been. The same number of goals scored and conceded, 14, suggests opponents were played even. An xG difference of 7.82 (2.31 if you discount a massive qualifier win over Iceland's KR) suggests Celtic might have been better. In that timespan, only Madrids Real and Atletico have ended a game at Celtic Park with more xG than their hosts.

UEFA estimates that somewhere around eight points should be enough to get a team into the knockout stages. It is not beyond imagination that Celtic could get near to that number from their home Games alone. Perhaps this isn't as bold a prediction in reality as it feels.

Haaland matches Ronaldo's goal record

Not, one should hasten to add, the big one. Erling Haaland has done very well in his first 39 Champions League games, scoring 41 goals. It seems a long shot that the next 15 or so will bring the 101 to overhaul Cristiano Ronaldo's overall record of 141. There is one other landmark that might be within Haaland's reach however.

In 2013-14, Ronaldo tore through the group stages of the Champions League, scoring 10 goals in his first four matches. He would get seven more before hoisting the trophy in the Estadio da Luz, setting a record mark that only he has consistently come close to matching. For anyone hoping to follow in Ronaldo's footsteps, the template is relatively straightforward, bulk up your numbers against the little guys. The good news for Haaland is he has a fair few more of them to face off against.

City's eight league phase games are not the easiest this competition has to offer by any stretch of the imagination but there are a few that Haaland might wish to earmark: Sparta Prague, Feyenoord and Club Brugge at home, Slovan Bratislava on the road. A few hat tricks in those games and he is right on the way.

Then again, on current form he might be able to do just as much damage against Paris Saint-Germain and Inter. With nine goals already in the Premier League, he is outscoring every team in the top flight except the one he plays for. Unsurprisingly, there is quite a bit of xG over-performance in that scoring deluge, but even an average finisher getting in the spots he is would be leading the Golden Boot race. Per 90 minutes he is averaging 1.03 npxG. Each of the three promoted sides are below that mark. Almost five shots per 90 is quite remarkable but just look at how good they are: 0.216 xG per shot. Early in the season certainly, but this is a step above the marks he has been setting so far in his remarkable career.

Compare the pre-shot and post-shot xG value of Haaland's shots and he is adding about 25 percent value to his chances. Maybe this can't last at such a remarkable level but this is a Haaland who enjoyed a summer off, looking fresher and stronger than he did at the back end of 2023-24 as injuries caught up with him. After the Norwegian, who might have missed the Game for compassionate leave after the death of a close friend, scored a brace to turn an early deficit to Brentford into a victory, Pep Guardiola did not stint in praise.

"I'd say [he's in] the best [form] but just four fixtures, not many games," Guardiola told a post-match news conference. "I didn't ask if he's ready. If he wasn't ready he would come to me. He's an incredible weapon."

Incredible enough that he seems better placed than anyone to match, perhaps even overhaul, Ronaldo's high watermark for a Champions League season. After all, if he just keeps up his current scoring rate in this new 15 Game campaign, Haaland would hit 16. Is it so hard to believe, given how well he has started, that the 24 year old might just be able to go a little bit better in the coming months?