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Celtics vs Cavaliers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA

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The Boston Celtics put the NBA on notice with their utter dismantling of the Golden State Warriors on Sunday. Now they’ll look to make it twelve straight wins as they face off against fellow Eastern Conference contender — the Cleveland Cavaliers — on Tuesday.

The Cavaliers are a lock to secure a Top-4 seed after a strong January run, but they’ll have to upset the NBA odds if they hope to slow down Boston’s seemingly inevitable march of the championship.

My NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Cavaliers detail why the home team might have trouble hanging around in this one.

Celtics vs Cavaliers odds

Celtics vs Cavaliers predictions

After landing on the wrong side of the worst loss of the Steve Kerr-Warriors Era, I’m just about done doubting the Boston Celtics.

This is, has been, and continues to be the best team in the NBA this season by any measure. What’s more, unlike some other elite teams, they are not taking this stretch of the season for granted despite having the No. 1 overall seed all but wrapped up.  

Maybe they’ll take their foot off the gas with a week to go before the playoffs to let some bruises heal up, but for now, their modus operandi is clear: they are going to try and win every Game and use those wins as opportunities to build their chemistry, style of play, and confidence.

Joe Mazzulla took a lot of flak in his first season (including from yours truly) but he’s shown one of the most promising traits for a championship-level coach: he’s willing to experiment. 

Whether it’s having Jrue Holiday guard bigs or expanding on ball playmaking roles for players outside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, he’s going to use the regular season as a laboratory to see all the ways that this team can win. While most teams don’t gameplan for regular season games, it’s clear the Celtics often do as a way of doing their homework early.

All of that is fallback though. Strategy one is beating teams with the 3-pointer, and when those shots fall, they are virtually unbeaten. The Celtics are 26-1 this season when they hot at least 40% of their threes.  

Boston’s consistent excellence stands in contrast to their opponent on Tuesday, the Cleveland Cavaliers, who enjoyed a brief moment in the sun as the NBA’s best team (at least by record over a month-plus) only to hit adversity recently.

The irony is that their season took off when two of their four best players (Evan Mobley and Darius Garland) went out, and it went to pieces when they returned. They now face the prospect of a somewhat extended absence by Donovan Mitchell, who has played the featured role for the best versions of every iteration of this squad.

With Mitchell out, the wonky spacing that comes from playing Mobley and Jarrett Allen together only becomes more heightened, and the Cavs might find themselves the victim of yet another of Mazzulla’s defensive experiments.

My best bet: Celtics -7.5 (-115 at Betway)

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Celtics vs Cavaliers same-game parlay

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Celtics -8

Kristaps Porzingis Over 18.5 points

Darius Garland Under 6.5 assists

+490 at DraftKings

As is the case whenever the Celtics play a team with a more traditional big man alignment like the Cavaliers, Kristaps Porzingis should function as a scheme-buster on Tuesday.

Cleveland plays two bigs during all the critical stretches of any Game including starting and closing halves. Mobley has the mobility to hang with KP on the perimeter, but Cleveland will loathe having Allen guard a true perimeter player like Brown to secure that matchup. 

It’s a dilemma and one that is not even solved by simply trying to play one big most of the game. Porzingis has developed to the point where he can take bigs off the dribble or catch and post up smaller or physically weaker opponents. I expect Boston to feature him heavily against Cleveland to put their defense into rotation.

Another reason the Cavs have struggled recently is that Garland has struggled to recapture the magic of his All-Star season.

Injuries have sapped his rhythm, as has his need to fit in alongside the increasingly ball-dominant Mitchell. That’s not a criticism; Mitchell has just been so much better than Garland at this point that the ball should be in his hands most of the time when they share the court. 

That's stunted Garland’s growth as an on-ball playmaker, to the degree that despite getting time to run the show in Mitchell’s absence, he’s not leveling up his output.

Garland is going to get guarded by some combination of Derrick White and Holiday on Tuesday. They’re going to crowd him and beat him up, which has proven an effective way to slow him down. I suspect the Cavaliers are not going to get many easy looks, so I’m shorting Garland’s assists for a plus-money addition to my SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Celtics vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Celtics opened as -6.5 point favorites for Tuesday and that’s since grown as high as -8.5 with money coming in on Boston.

The Cavaliers are sliding, and things would look much worse if not for a few outlier plays including a Max Strus 59-foot game-winner that happened to go their way. The fact is that this year's team has not recaptured the magic that made their two-big and two-guard playstyle work.

Cleveland is now 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games and is below water ATS at home as well.

A team with such identifiable weaknesses, and missing their best player, seems vulnerable to a Celtics blowout, as most every team is. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Celtics are beating the spread by an average of +17.3 points per game over their last five.

These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, so it should be no surprise that Tuesday’s total has come in at a relatively minuscule 219.5. That’s steadily fallen even further to as low as 215.5 at some sportsbooks.

That’s all about the potency of Boston’s defense. While the Celtics and Cavaliers are tied for second in defensive rating at 111.4, Boston has been playing much better on that side of the ball lately. If there’s a path to the Over on Tuesday, it’s another Boston avalanche of scoring supported by just enough shooting from the likes of Garland and Strus.

Celtics vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

The Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Cavaliers.

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Celtics vs Cavaliers game info

Location: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, OH
Date: Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
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