Best NBA Player Props Today - April 7

Prop bet #1: Bulldozing Barrett

The Toronto Raptors recently snapped a 15-game losing streak, in no small part because both Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett returned to the court after dealing with family tragedies.

While Quickley runs the offense, RJ is the team’s play finisher, particularly in transition. RJ is among the very best in the NBA at attacking in the open court as only Giannis Antetokounmpo and De'Aaron Fox finish plays in transition more frequently.

Ironically, among the best times to score in transition is immediately following an opponent's transition possession. Transition attacks often lead to poor floor balance and four-on-three scenarios. RJ is always aggressive in attacking the rim if the opposing big isn’t diligent about getting back.

That’s why the Washington Wizards allow the second most points per 100 possessions in transition and are one of the most frequent teams to score in transition themselves. Missed shots at the rim usually become fast breaks, but Barrett and the Raptors even run hard on makes.

Barrett has scored 23 or more in four straight and in nine of his last 11. Given the run-and-gun nature of this matchup, I think these RJ Barrett odds are much too low.

RJ Barrett prop: Over 22.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

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Prop bet #2: Ready for liftoff

The Houston Rockets' quest to make the playoffs may be functionally dead, but that doesn’t mean the remaining games on their schedule are without meaning. 

The Rockets made a big leap this season, and if they want to make another one next year, multiple prospects need to progress toward becoming strong starters or All-Star-level players like Alperen Sengun.

Sengun’s injury was incredibly unfortunate, but it has opened more opportunities for certain players and has allowed the team to explore different play styles.

Jabari Smith Jr. has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. Jabari has all the makings of an elite stretch five but played that role only sparingly while Sengun was healthy. 

His legit 6-foot-10 size makes his shot difficult to block, and because he can play center and protect the rim, opposing teams are often guarding him with a traditional five. 

Daniel Gafford has had a nice run with the Dallas Mavericks this season, but he’s not the kind of player built to play on the perimeter. Smith's mere presence opens up new angles of attack for his teammates by drawing the defense out, and he’s the ultimate release valve on any drive and kick action. Now that he’s shooting 42% from the corners, those actions have some real bite.

He’s also developing a nice pick and pop chemistry with Fred VanVleet. The rest of the Rockets are looking to hit him as the trailer in transition more too. 

His volume and efficiency have spiked in recent days, making these Jabari Smith Jr. odds somewhat puzzling. Unless mired in a brutal slump, it’s difficult to not hit at least two threes when you’re taking 8.4 a game like Smith is over his last five games.

And he's not slumping. He is shooting 40.5% in his last five games and 38.4% since March 1st.

Jabari Smith Jr. prop: Over 1.5 made threes (-125 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: "Scary Terry" time

Terry Rozier took a while to get acclimated as a member of the Miami Heat. At first, he was overly deferential for long stretches of games, and his rhythm was out of whack for about a month after the trade that brought him over from the Charlotte Hornets.

But Rozier has lately flashed the tantalizing offensive upside that made the Heat covet him in the first place. 

He’s a microwave scorer and an outstanding outsight shooter. He’s capable of hitting threes flying off screens, step-backs going to his right, and pull-up threes in transition. 

He has the ultimate green light, and now that he’s feeling more comfortable with his spot in the Heat hierarchy, he’s back shooting to how he was to begin the season.

Over his last five games, Rozier is taking 9.8 threes per game and hitting them at a scorching 57.1% clip. This game against the Indiana Pacers is absolutely massive for the Heat’s playoff chances, and the only way Miami can keep up with the Pacers' firepower is if Rozier stays aggressive.

Rozier has hit at least three treys in eight of his last 10 games. Getting these Terry Rozier odds at significant plus money is serious value. 

Terry Rozier prop: Over 2.5 made threes (+155 at bet365)