Best MLB prop bets for today, 9/3: Gallen continues home dominance

With all 30 MLB teams in action this Sunday, there are plenty of betting angles to consider when approaching today’s Games. Sunday baseball can be tricky in terms of unusual starting lineups, but there are still 3 plays that stood out to me this morning. With these Games being played in the afternoon I will keep the analysis a bit shorter than usual. Let’s dive in!

Zac Gallen (ARI) over 17.5 outs recorded (-125)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -135 odds.

Zac Gallen has fallen behind Blake Snell in the NL Cy Young race, but nobody has been better in their home ballpark that the Diamondbacks ace this season. Gallen has made 13 starts in front of his home crowd this season, posting a 1.79 ERA with a .211 opponent batting average and 101 Ks in 85.1 IP. Only 13 walks and 6 home runs in that span have helped keep his pitch count efficient, and as a result Gallen has turned in 6 innings or more in all 13 of those starts. On the year Gallen has recorded over 17.5 outs in 21 of 28 starts, and with the playoff race coming to an end, Gallen’s workload in the final months should remain heavy.

The right-hander has averaged 95.1 pitches per start this season and has thrown 97 or more in 6 of his last 8 starts. He is fresh off a poor start, allowing 6 earned runs to the Dodgers, but he was on the road and Los Angeles is a tough lineup to navigate. While Baltimore is also a very solid lineup in their own right, they are a less consistent unit. The Orioles against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days average under 3.88 pitches per plate appearance, a below average mark. In that span they have the 3rd lowest BB% as well at 6.0%. Gallen ranks 90th percentile in BB% this season, throwing first pitch strikes at the 14th highest rate among qualified pitchers as well. Active Orioles batters have only 13 combined AB against Gallen all-time, and with only 1 hit to show for it in that sample. None of the younger bats have faced him and their lack of familiarity should suit the pitcher well, at least to begin the game.

Tarik Skubal (DET) over 5.5 strikeouts (-120)

Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -130 odds.

Tarik Skubal is one of my favorite pitchers in all of MLB. In fact, my first ever player prop article with Pickswise was an over 5.5 strikeout prop on Mr. Skubal himself. Injuries prevented him from starting the season on time this year, but he has since worked his way back to a full workload, and I love his matchup today against the Chicago White Sox. Skubal has allowed a 3.93 ERA through his first 50.1 IP this season, but his 3.07 SIERA and 2.41 FIP have been far more impressive. The left-hander has generated a swinging strike rate of 18.2%, 12.9%, and 13.4% in his last 3 starts, racking up 7, 7, and 9 strikeouts in those outings. His 95.9 MPH 4-seamer and 96.1 MPH sinker are being thrown well harder than before his injury, and his wicked sliders and changeups give him wipeout pitches to utilize with 2 strikes.

Skubal utilizes his 4-seam fastball an arsenal high 39.2% of the time, and his 26.4% whiff rate on that pitch has helped him accrue 27 of his 59 strikeouts to this point. The White Sox have the 3rd highest strikeout rate against left-handed 4-seam fastballs in the last 60 days as a team. Skubal has a far higher strikeout rate against right-handed batters, and the same was true last season. Fortunately for this prop the White Sox lineup today contains 7 right-handed batters. Even Oscar Colas, one of the two lefties, has a 28.3% K% in his 53 PA against LHP this season.

The Tigers pitcher has seen 90.4 pitches and 23.4 batters faced per start in his last 5 outings, showing that Detroit has taken his training wheels off. With his workload expanded I am more comfortable backing his props, and with Chicago’s 25.3% K% against LHP ranking as the 6th highest mark in the last 30 days, today’s matchup seems like the time to do so. Home plate umpire Will Little is also known to be a pitcher-friendly umpire with a fondness for calling strikes on pitches off the plate. Chicago has the 4th highest chase rate and 6th highest swinging strike rate in the last month as is, so Skubal should be in for a solid day in the strikeout department.

Wade Miley (MIL) over 4.5 hits allowed (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.

Wade Miley has only allowed 5 or more hits in 8 of his 18 starts this season, and 3 of the last 10, but I believe the price on his hits allowed prop is too cheap to pass up in today’s matchup. The veteran left-hander has pitched well for the Brewers this season, helping their rotation maintain its place as the strength of the team. With Milwaukee looking to win their division and prepare for the playoff run, Miley’s veteran presence has likely been a welcome addition in the clubhouse. He has outperformed his peripheral statistics this season, however. His 3.17 ERA is shadowed by a far more worrisome 4.71 FIP and 5.04 SIERA.

Miley ranks just 6th percentile in K% with an 11th percentile swinging strike rate, and his 66th percentile BB% leads to a ton of balls in play. This is where he has been most fortunate as his .231 batting average allowed on the year has a .263 xBA behind it. That expected batting average ranks just 23rd percentile among all MLB pitchers this season. He now faces a Philadelphia offense that has been red hot. Against left-handed pitching specifically in the last 3o days the Phillies rank 7th in AVG at .281. That includes 5 or more hits against 7 of the last 11 left-handed starters they have faced. Today’s lineup has 19 hits in their 53 combined AB against Miley all-time, including Bryce Harper and his 6/13 history against the southpaw. Look for an aggressive Phillies offense as they look to avoid a sweep.

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