Best MLB prop bets for today, 8/30: Reds caught in Logan's Webb

Wednesday’s MLB slate contains 15 games to consume as all 30 MLB teams will take the field. With August quickly coming to a close, this final stretch run is going to be crucial in determining who comprises the playoff field.

One of today’s games is an important matchup between teams competing for a National League wild-card spot as the San Francisco Giants host the Cincinnati Reds. My favorite player prop for today is in that game, so et’s dive in! Remember you can also read our MLB picks for every game on today’s slate.

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Logan Webb (Giants) over 5.5 strikeouts (-110)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

Logan Webb is one of baseball’s better starting pitchers and has been for each of the last 3 seasons. This year the right-hander ranks 18th in ERA, 14th in xERA, 8th in FIP, 2nd in xFIP, 3rd in SIERA, 9th in WHIP, 1st in GB%, and 10th in fWAR. He is likely to finish within the top 5 vote-getters in the NL for the Cy Young award, and he has been at his best at home this season. The 26-year-old has made 13 home starts spanning a combined 90.2 innings, tossing 6 or more innings in 12 of those 13 starts. His .227 OBA, nearly 6:1 K:BB ratio, and only 8 home runs have combined for a 2.48 ERA. Today he draws another home start, this time against the struggling Cincinnati Reds lineup.

The Giants’ dependency on Webb has been massive this season, with Alex Cobb as the only other Giant with 20+ starts. Anthony DeSclafani hasn’t thrown in more than a month, resulting in Webb making 18 starts, and the 4th most on the team is Ross Stripling, Alex Wood and Ryan Walker with 11 starts each. Walker’s “starts” are just games he opens, as the talented reliever handles the first 5-8 batters of the game for the bulk reliever. San Francisco has utilized bullpen games more than anyone else in the league, and its dependency on Webb to be consistent is much higher than the aces on most other teams.

Today Webb gets a home start in what lines up as a plus matchup on paper. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, a sample of 690 PA, the Cincinnati Reds have struck out 28.7% of the time, the 2nd-highest rate behind only the Colorado Rockies. In this span they rank 20th in BB, 25th in AVG, 22nd in SLG, 25th in wOBA, and their wRC+ sits at just 79. Regardless of handedness faced in that time, the Reds’ plate discipline has been putrid, ranking 27th in zone contact rate and recording the 3rd-highest CSW%. Not only will they swing and miss, but the Reds have taken the 3rd-most looking strikeouts this season, and their 28.4% looking strike rate overall ranks as the 2nd-highest mark.

Webb is not necessarily a strikeout artist, but he is a cerebral pitcher who picks up on opponent’s tendencies and is more than willing to mold his game to best outduel his opposition. There is a lot to like when it comes to his strikeout potential in this matchup. For starters, Webb uses a combination of changeups, sinkers and sliders to punch out batters, with his changeup leading the way. That offering has accounted for 78 of his 163 strikeouts this season. The Reds rank 2nd-worst in K% against right-handed changeups in the last 60 days, and 3rd-worst in the last 30. Against right-handed sliders they have the highest K% across both the last 30 and last 60 days. Webb’s sinker doesn’t generate many whiffs at just 10.3%, but his 22.1% put-away rate with that offering is thanks to elite location and his ability to spot it on the paint with 2 strikes. That pitch accounts for the majority of his looking strikeouts, and today Webb gets the benefit of arguably the most pitcher-friendly umpire, Bill Miller. Miller is notorious for his wide zone and a great match for Webb’s command.

The Reds’ lineup is projected to contain 6 batters with a 23% or higher K% against right-handed pitching this season. Webb’s 23.7% K% against left-handed batters falls to just 23.1% against righties, providing value regardless of how the Reds handle their platoons. Alex Cobb entered yesterday’s Game against the Reds having completed 6 full frames just once in August while recording 4, 3, 3, 3 and 4 strikeouts in his first 5 starts. Last night he threw a complete-Game shutout with 8 Ks against this lineup. That is now 9 straight right-handed starting pitchers to allow 2 or fewer earned runs against Cincinnati, and with Webb’s consistency and workload I love the value on his strikeout prop this afternoon.

Remember to also check out today’s MLB mega parlay and YRFI/NRFI Best Bets

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