Best MLB prop bets for today 7/18: Musgrove over Manoah early on

Today’s slate featured 15 full Games and the continuation of Reds vs Giants last night. Marquee matchups include Nathan Eovaldi vs Taj Bradley, Brayan Woo vs Bailey Ober, and the Dodgers at Orioles Game. My favorite play for today, however, is an interesting pitching matchup between Joe Musgrove and the Padres vs Alek Manoah and the Blue Jays. Let’s dive in!

San Diego Padres first 5 innings ML (-125) (to win 0.75U)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -135 odds.

Alek Manoah’s early season struggles have been well documented and discussed this year. Among pitchers with 60 or more innings this season, the 2022 all-star ranks 2nd worst in FIP, 4th worst in xERA, and 2nd worst in K-BB% behind Yonny Chirinos who was just cut by Tampa Bay. After some time in the minor leagues, including rookie ball, Manoah has returned and performed well in his first game back against the Tigers. He tossed 6 innings of 1-run ball with 8 Ks, and his slider was doing damage with 4 Ks and no hits allowed on 33.0% usage. His slider is crucial for his arsenal, and while it was likely encouraging to see those results for Manoah backers, he draws a far tougher matchup today against San Diego. The Padres since June 1 have seen the 7th most right-handed sliders thrown their way. In that sample they have the 2nd lowest strikeout rate, 4th highest batting average, and rank 5th best in both SLG and wOBA. Manoah throws a sinker, 4-seamer, and changeup as well, but those 3 pitches have allowed respective xBA’s of .298, .295, and .311 this season. If his slider isn’t on point, everything could fall apart in this matchup. Overall, against right-handed pitching in that same timeframe since June 1 San Diego ranks 9th in wOBA with a 111 wRC+ and a league best K-BB% of only 9.6%. They work counts and frustrate opposing pitchers by ranking 3rd in pitches per plate appearance as a team. It is rare for a team to work counts yet not strikeout as well as they do, but their plate discipline is truly elite. Their league-low chase rate since June 1 paired with the 6th highest zone contact rate leads to a ton of balls in play. With Manoah’s batted ball profile, that is music to my ears.

Joe Musgrove will take the mound for the Padres tonight, marking his 15th outing of the season. He entered the all-star break in elite form, allowing just 1 run in 13 innings against the Angels and Mets with 18 Ks to only 1 walk in those 2 starts. Dating back even further, Musgrove has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 straight starts and 8 of his last 9. The one time he allowed more than 2, he allowed 3. Musgrove is shoving, and his advanced numbers support his success this season. The right-hander ranks 92nd percentile this season in hard-hit rate with an 88th percentile barrel rate resulting in only 8 home runs across 79.1 IP. A 64.8% first pitch strike rate has helped his 90th percentile BB%, and his lack of free passes issued reduces the runs scored when he does make a mistake. Part of what makes Musgrove such a steady pitcher is his 6-pitch mix, 5 of which are used at least 12.1% of the time. The former Pirate pitcher uses his 4-seam fastball more than his other offerings and holds opponents to a .273 wOBA on 26.8% usage. His curveball is the preferred breaking ball over his slider and holds opponents to a .277 wOBA on 22.8% usage. He uses this pitch heavily against either handedness and the Mets have struggled against right-handed curveballs since June 1, ranking 23rd in wOBA and 25th in AVG. The Mets offense has been inconsistent this season, and despite league average play of late against right-handed pitching, their numbers don’t compare to San Diego’s in the same time span. Look for San Diego to lead after 5 innings of play.

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