Best MLB prop bets for today, 6/23: Boston saved by the Bello

With new series taking place and 28 of the 30 MLB teams in action tonight, baseball fans will have no shortage of Entertainment on the diamond. Weather could play a role in today’s Games with rain along the east coast, but there is still value to be had from a betting perspective. Let’s dive in!

Brayan Bello (BOS) over 17.5 outs recorded (-135)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter, playable to -145 odds.

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello is in terrific form of late, and his workload has reflected his improved performance. The 24-year-old right-hander has thrown 97 or more pitches in 7 straight starts. In 5 of those 7 starts Bello has exceeded this 17.5 outs mark including each of his last 3 outings. His 3 outings this month have resulted in a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP while pitching 6, 6, and 7 innings against fellow AL East opponents. During that span his pitches per plate appearance has been 3.75, a mark that would rank 32nd best among 110 qualified pitchers if replicated across an entire season. Bello is throwing first pitch strikes 63.8% of the time this year, 3% higher than league average. He draws chases on pitches outside that zone at a 59th percentile clip while his BB% is 2.3% better than last year and ranks 55th percentile. None of those marks are going to blow you away, but what draws me to this play the most is Bello’s elite ability to generate ground ball outs.

Bello has a 58.4% ground ball rate this season, up from 55.4% last year. In the minor leagues Bello reached 60% or higher multiple times so this is no fluke. His pitch repertoire is comprised of 4 pitches, all of which are thrown at least 21.0% of the time. The sinker leads his arsenal with 33.8% usage and is the primary reason for his massive ground ball rate. Not only does his sinker work down in the zone, but his changeup and slider do as well. Bello can elevate his 4-seam fastball and has a 24.6% whiff rate on that pitch which is very good for a 4-seamer. The changeup is his nastiest put away pitch with a 43.1% whiff rate and 24.7% put away rate. He uses that offering to either handedness but it is a particularly effective weapon for him against left-handed bats.

The White Sox will likely have 6 right-handed batters in their lineup today, and Bello’s sinker usage spikes to 44.1% when facing righties. Chicago has struggled mightily against right-handed sinkers this season ranking 25th in ISO and 30th in wOBA with the 8th highest strikeout rate. They aren’t very good against right-handed pitching, overall. In the last 30 days against right-handers the White Sox rank 29th in wOBA with the 4th lowest BB% and a wRC+ of 77. On the season they swing at the 3rd highest rate of 1st pitches, and rank 29th in pitches per plate appearance behind only Washington. That is a recipe for long outings from opposing starting pitchers. With Chicago having the highest ground ball rate in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching and Bello’s current workload, reaching 6 innings of work should be highly attainable for the right-hander tonight.

Pickswise is the home of free expert MLB Predictions every day of the season. Check out today’s MLB Best Bets now.