Best MLB prop bet for today, 8/8: Tough matchup for the Twins bats

With under 8 weeks remaining in the 2023 MLB regular season, it is becoming clearer who is truly contending for playoff spots and a chance at a World Series. Divisional tiebreakers are being set and teams are prepping for the final stretch run. Today’s slate provides baseball fans with plenty of intriguing matchups, and there are plenty of angles to attack in the betting markets as a result. Today’s featured play involves the AL Central leading Twins and their tough matchup. Let’s dive in!

Eduardo Rodriguez (DET) over 5.5 strikeouts (+105)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -120 odds.

I took this same prop in Rodriguez’s last start against the Pittsburgh Pirates and unfortunately lost with the left-hander landing exactly on 5 strikeouts. A slow first inning hiked his pitch count and set him behind pace early, and 2 missed 3rd strikes from home plate umpire Roberto Ortiz at the end of his outing kept him under the 5.5 mark. Rodriguez pitched well, however, tossing 6 innings of 2-run ball with only 1 walk issued across 93 pitches. Today he once again has his outs recorded prop set at 17.5 with heavy juice towards the over, implying he works at least 6 innings. The Tigers have available bullpen arms but after getting only 8.2 combined innings from their last 2 starters they would love for a quality outing tonight from their ace.

The Minnesota Twins are a team that has struggled against left-handed pitching all season long. On the year they rank 26th in wOBA, 30th in AVG, 25th in K%, and have a wRC+ of 90. Their play against left-handed pitching has improved of late, but this is due to some weak competition. The last 10 left-handed starters to face the Twins have been Joey Wentz twice, Cole Irvin twice, Koby Allard, Austin Cox, Ken Waldichuk, J.P. Sears, Ryan Yarbrough and Matthew Liberatore. That isn’t exactly the toughest gauntlet of southpaw pitching the league has to offer, and E-Rod is easily the best pitcher among that group. Even some of those pitchers found significant success in their matchups. Allard struck out 8 across 4.2 scoreless innings and Sears recorded 7 strikeouts across 6.1 quality innings.

Including switch-hitters there is a chance the Twins have an all-right-handed lineup against Rodriguez today. While he allows higher production to right-handers, those numbers are still well below league average. A .637 OPS, .281 wOBA, .112 ISO, and 19.1% K-BB% against RHB are all healthy marks. When facing right-handed pitching Rodriguez has a relatively balanced pitch mix, utilizing his main 3 pitches at least 23.9% of the time overall and using 4 pitches at least 16.7% of the time when having 2 strikes on his opponent. This helps keep batters off balance as they cannot afford to sit on one pitch. Most of his K’s have come from his 4-seam fastball this season, and Minnesota has the 2nd highest K% in baseball against left-handed 4-seamers this year. His changeup, cutter, and sinker all contribute to his total as well.

A 64.2% first pitch strike rate helps E-Rod get ahead in counts with regularity, and his 29.7% chase rate sits 63rd percentile. He wins in the zone with a zone contact rate 1.8% below league average as well. Minnesota is just middle of the pack in chase rate across the last 30 days but connect on those chases at the 6th lowest rate. Their zone contact rate in that span also sits 6th worst. On the season Minnesota leads MLB in looking strikeouts with 290, and 24.9% of their overall strikeouts are via a looking 3rd strike. That percentage sits 7th highest in MLB and that could be problematic against Rodriguez who has the 10th most looking strikeouts among pitchers this season. His deception and movement on his pitch repertoire helps him consistently gain these looking strikes, and his CSW% sits 59th percentile as a result. Needing just a strikeout per inning with his projected workload in this matchup and getting it at plus money is something I cannot pass up on.

Pickswise is the home of free expert MLB Predictions every day of the season. Check out today’s MLB Best Bets now.