Best MLB prop bet for today, 6/28: A favorable matchup for Aaron Nola

All 30 MLB teams will take the field today as part of a massive slate of Games. There are plenty of interesting matchups, including Blake Snell vs Mitch Keller and the Rays vs Diamondbacks, but my favorite betting angle for tonight is in the Phillies at Cubs Game. Let’s dive in!

Aaron Nola (PHI) over 5.5 strikeouts (-146, to win 0.75U)

Aaron Nola (PHI) over 6.5 strikeouts (+142, risking 0.25U)

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Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

Aaron Nola has had a down season compared to his lofty standards but is still a very good pitcher who draws an advantageous matchup tonight. The veteran right-hander began the season with decreased velocity, averaging just 91.7 mph on his 4-seamer in April. In May that rate jumped back up to 92.2 mph and through 4 starts in June his velocity is sitting 93.4 mph on average. Along with that uptick in velocity, his swinging strike rate has jumped as well. After posting a single-digit swinging strike rate in 6 of his first 9 starts Nola has generated a double-digit rate in 6 of his last 7. That includes 19.1%, 15.7%, and 15.4% rates in his 3 starts prior to the last outing. His last start was as tough of a matchup as you can run into, facing the lethal Braves lineup for the second time in less than a month. While the strikeout total landed on only 5, Nola pitched extremely well, allowing 0 runs across his 6 innings of work.

Nola’s workload has been fantastic of late, throwing 98 or more pitches in 8 straight starts and 102 or more in each of the last 5. He has tossed at least 6 innings of work in 12 of his last 13 starts and pitched into the 7th in 8 of his last 12 starts. That includes 7 starts ago when he faced this Cubs lineup, striking out 10 batters across 7 innings of 2-run ball. Chicago has posted a 24.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the last 30 days, the 6th-highest mark in MLB during that span. Osvaldo Bido (6, 7), Johan Oviedo (8), Kyle Gibson (7), and Dean Kremer (7) have all recently cleared these lines against the Cubs, and none have such good strikeout stuff as Nola.

The long time Phillie throws a 5-pitch arsenal with each offering being used at least 9.9% of the time. His curveball leads the way with 31.2% usage. The season-long numbers are down on that pitch but mostly because of its performance in April. The Cubs have a league-average K% against right-handed curveballs but the pitch should be effective for him regardless with Chicago ranking 30th in wOBA and ISO against it. Against right-handed 4-seamers, Nola’s next most-used pitch, the Cubs have the 2nd-lowest wOBA and 3rd-highest K%. Nola generated a 30% whiff rate and 4 strikeouts on that pitch alone in the first matchup. His sinker receives 18.1% usage and while sinkers generally aren’t strikeout pitches, Nola does have an arsenal-high 24.7% put-away rate with that pitch. He caught 2 Cubs with Ks on that pitch in the first matchup and Chicago has the 2nd-highest K% against right-handed sinkers this season. Against left-handed batters Nola’s changeup usage spikes, and for good reason as lefties have a 38.3% whiff rate, 23.1% put-away rate, and .242 wOBA against it. Outside of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal, the rest of the Chicago lineup has a heavy swing-and-miss profile and I look forward to another strong outing from Aaron Nola tonight.

You can also read our +957 MLB mega parlay and YRFI/NRFI Best Bets

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