Best MLB prop bet for today, 6/27: Darvish and the Padres roll in Pittsburgh

Today’s slate is absolutely filled with games worth watching and betting on. The Cubs and Cardinals have returned from London to begin new series against the Phillies and Astros respectively. Aces such as Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, Zac Gallen, Kevin Gausman, Framber Valdez, and Joe Ryan are all taking the mound for their ball clubs. My attention is focused on the game in Pittsburgh, however. Let’s dive in!

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San Diego Padres team total over 3.5 / Yu Darvish 5+ strikeouts (-120)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to the -125 odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

There are many ways to attack the Pittsburgh Pirates currently, and today this is my favorite way. Rich Hill is 43-years of age and has the slowest average 4-seam velocity in all of MLB. The southpaw still throws that pitch 33.9% of the time, 6% less than his arsenal-leading 39.9% curveball usage. His cutter essentially rounds out his portfolio with a sweeper and sinker each seeing only single-digit usage. While San Diego’s season long numbers against left-handed fastballs are not great, in June those numbers have improved with a healthy Manny Machado and the addition of Gary Sanchez. Against left-handed curveballs, San Diego has dominated all season with the 3rd highest wOBA and 4th highest ISO. They sit 9th in wOBA and 10th in ISO against left-handed cutters. Despite facing 5 innings of MacKenzie Gore’s best possible baseball in their last chance, against southpaw pitching in the last 30 days San Diego ranks 3rd in wOBA, 2nd in ISO, and have a wRC+ of 128.

The Padres lineup is patient, averaging the 3rd most pitches per plate appearance of any team in baseball while drawing the 5th highest BB% against southpaws. Hill has been able to remain in the league due to his plus command, but this season that control has faltered with a 56.9% first pitch strike rate and 44th percentile BB%. He has walked 2 or more batters in 8 of his last 9 outings including 6 walks against Milwaukee 2 starts ago. The Brewers are 2nd in pitches per plate appearance, for reference. Not only is Hill issuing a higher rate of free passes but being behind in counts with an inability to throw 90 MPH is not where you want to be. Hill ranks 16th percentile or worse in barrel rate, xBA, xSLG, whiff rate, and chase rate. Batters are laying off on the pitches outside the zone and destroying those left over the plate. Behind Hill is a Pirates bullpen that has fallen apart in the last 30 days. During that span they rank dead last in ERA (6.57), WHIP (1.80), K-BB% (6.3%), and FIP (5.57.) They have faced the 8th most batters during that span as well. Ballpark Pal is projecting an 8% boost in overall runs scored with a 20% boost to doubles and triples at PNC Park tonight. With 11 MPH wind blowing out and temperatures in the 70’s the run scoring environment is better than a normal night in Pittsburgh.

Yu Darvish is the 2nd part of this play. The 36-year-old right-hander is coming off a season in which he tossed 194.2 innings of 3.10 ERA ball. With the exception of some smaller aspects, Darvish is mainly the same guy he was a year ago. His 4.84 ERA is not pretty to look at, but his 3.61 xERA and 3.72 xFIP are hardly different from his 3.49 xERA and 3.58 xFIP a season ago. Darvish is generating a higher ground ball rate while maintaining a 29.7% CSW% and 25.8% K%. His barrel rate is lower as a product of the increased ground ball rate, and his diverse repertoire of pitches is as lethal as ever when his command is there. He is still a terrific talent. Darvish throws 7 different pitches tracked by Statcast with, alleged variations on 3 of them. Each pitch is thrown at least 8.1% of the time, and none thrown more than 21.3% of the time. His game-to-game variance in that pitch usage alters, but he is a cerebral pitcher who is able to understand his skills and best suit his game to match his opponent. His opponent tonight is the lowly Pirates lineup.

In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching the Pirates rank 29th in wOBA, 28th in ISO, and have a wRC+ of 75. They are swinging at pitches located inside the zone at the 7th lowest rate in MLB. When they do swing, they connect inside the zone at the 6th lowest rate. On the season they have taken the 8th most looking strikeouts. Those looking strikeouts account for 26.9% of their Ks, the 2nd highest rate in baseball. Darvish’s diverse pitch arsenal and exceptional movement on his pitches results in a 28.9% looking strike rate, the 11th highest mark among 111 qualified pitchers. He ranks 25th in MLB in looking strikeouts and is also able to make batters miss with his 11.0% swinging strike rate. Darvish averages 1.06 strikeouts per inning while having his outs prop set at 18.5 tonight. His last 4 outings have averaged 101 pitches per start while reaching 5 or more Ks in each outing. Darvish has 5 or more strikeouts in 39 of 48 starts dating back to last season and should be able to find 5 or more against the Pirates.

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