Best MLB prop bet for today, 5/16: Rangers keep crushing southpaws

With all 30 MLB teams in action, today’s slate of Games leaves no shortage of action. There are plenty of high-end pitchers taking the mound, and several powerful offenses set up in successful matchups. With offense up across the league this season, and numerous pitchers struggling to adapt to the changes, my prop today is angled towards backing a hot lineup set to receive a massive boost to their lineup. Let’s dive in!

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Texas Rangers first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds. 

The Texas Rangers entered this season with high hopes for their upgraded pitching staff, but their offense is what has spearheaded a 25-16 start. That offense has been particularly productive against left-handed pitching this season. Against southpaws, Texas ranks 4th in wOBA, 5th in SLG, 4th in BB% and have a 124 wRC+. The Rangers love to get off to fast starts, averaging the 2nd most runs per game in the first 5 innings this season. Each of the last 9 left-handed starters they have faced have surrendered 3 or more runs within the first 5 innings, and most of those starters didn’t make it past the 5th. Even quality pitchers such as Nick Lodolo, Nestor Cortes, and Reid Detmers are amongst that list. Texas has been fantastic offensively already, but now Corey Seager is expected to be activated from the IL and inserted in tonight’s lineup. The all-star bat would be a welcomed addition and lengthen the lineup even further.

Today Texas faces Jared Shuster who will make his 3rd MLB start. His first start was against the Nationals and the left-hander walked 5 batters and allowed 6 hits with 4 earned runs. He followed that up with 4 more walks, 6 more hits, and 4 more earned runs against the Padres. A 57.8% first pitch strike rate sets him behind in counts, and Shuster hasn’t been able to generate chases in order to catch up. His zone contact rate sits 3.7% above league average and the contact isn’t cheap, as Shuster allows a 41.9% hard-hit rate. The left-hander uses a 3-pitch mix with his 4-seamer, changeup and slider. Texas ranks 2nd in run value/100 against both the slider and changeup, and his 90.1 MPH fastball is certainly able to be beaten with a .427 xwOBA. In Shuster’s last outing before being recalled, he allowed 4 earned runs in 5.2 IP to the Nashville Sounds. Texas is no minor-league team, and I look for the Rangers to stay hot against southpaws tonight.

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