Best MLB player prop for today, 9/7: Hernandez torches Tampa Bay

The NFL kicks off the 2023-24 season in Kansas City tonight, but we have money to make across the board regardless of what sport we find the value in. The sportsbooks are sleeping in Tampa Bay, as we have found a player prop that should not be plus money. Here is my best player prop bet for the evening of Thursday, September 7.

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Teoscar Hernandez (SEA) Over 1.5 total bases (+100)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

The Seattle Mariners are on a Cinderella run in the second half of the season and one of the leaders of the pack has been Teoscar Hernandez in the middle of a red-hot lineup. The veteran right-handed hitter has hit this prop in 8 of his last 13 games and gets a great matchup tonight, making this 50% implied probability worth the buy. He will be on the road in this one facing Zack Littell and the Tampa Bay Rays.

For the season Littell ranks in the 27th percentile of starting pitchers in xERA, 21st percentile in barrel rate and 99th percentile in prohibiting walks. As a starter for the Rays he has a miniscule 1.0% walk rate but has posted a mediocre 4.48 xFIP with a .505 SLG and 36% hard-hit % allowed against right-handed bats while primarily throwing a mediocre 4-seam fastball and an even worse slider. That means he is not afraid to throw strikes but will do so with uninspiring put-away stuff.

Since August 1, Hernandez has posted a low 6.7% walk rate but a team-leading 201 wRC+, robust .265 ISO and 50.0 hard-hit % against right-handed pitchers on the road. In that span, he also leads Mariners hitters with a .937 xSLG against right-handed 4-seamers.

The soft matchup makes Hernandez the perfect candidate to do damage with the bat early in the Game, but it is also of note that the Rays’ bullpen was used in plenty of high-leverage situations in their previous series against the Boston Red Sox, so Hernandez could run into a baseball off late in this one, as well.

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