Best MLB player prop bets for today, 8/27: Cody Bellinger gets favorable matchup

MLB Sunday gets started early with 12:05 first pitch in New York. Meanwhile, most of the action on the East Coast will begin at 1:35 E.T. Javan put on a show with a 3-0 performance in MLB player props. Let’s see if we can replicate that.

Let’s focus our attention to one of the top hitters in the MLB this season, Cody Bellinger. He headlines our top MLB player prop bet of the day, but be sure to also check out our MLB predictions for every matchup on the docket.

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Cody Bellinger (CHC) over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-135)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Cody Bellinger cost us Friday Night with an 0-4 performance from the plate but had an infield single overturned in the 9th inning. A 5-minute review was questionable but we move on. Bellinger and the rest of the Cubs offense had an offensive explosion yesterday in game 2 of their series against the Pirates. They scored 10 runs with Bellinger recording 2 hits, 2 runs, and 2 rbi’s. Safe to say he crushed this prop.

Today, he’ll face off against former Philadelphia Phillies LHP Bailey Falter. You may already be aware but Bellinger crushes left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .331 with an on-base percentage of .391. The unfamiliarity with Falter doesn’t help but the top of the Cubs order hitting in front of Bellinger have all seen Falter. I trust this Cubs offense to find the basepaths for Bellinger and move this prop to 33/48 on the road where he may see 5 at-bats.

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Jordan Montgomery (TEX) over 17.5 outs (-120)

Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Who doesn’t love a +EV prop? BetMGM has this listed at -120 with the next best major book coming in at -141. Let’s dive into this prop.

Jordan Montgomery has been nothing short of a workhorse since he left the New York Yankees. Now that he’s moved on from the St. Louis Cardinals and found himself on a contending team, Montgomery has been lights out. In 4 games with the Rangers, Montgomery has a 1.73 ERA, has allowed just 5 runs, and has cashed this prop in all 4 games. He’s even cashed this prop in 7 straight games.

Montgomery will face off against the Twins today in what should be a great game. The Rangers, on the road, are listed as slight favorites with Bailey Ober on the mound. All we care about is the Twins offense here. They’ve been solid against LHP this month but nothing to shy us away from playing this. Montgomery’s 80th percentile BB% will be much needed today and limit his pitch count which has fallen in the low 90’s.

With Montgomery cashing this prop in 12 of his last 13 starts and him facing the Twins for the first time since 2021, I trust the southpaw to be efficient and give the Rangers 6 innings of quality baseball.

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Michael Wacha (SDP) under 4.5 strikeouts (-130)

Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

We’re shopping around today. 3 different books for 3 different player props. Make sure you’re shopping around for this player prop as FanDuel is beating the market by 20 cents on DraftKings.

Michael Wacha has been extremely impressive. Even coming off injury, he hasn’t slowed down. But, if there’s any prop to attack it’s Wacha’s K’s. He’s failed to record 5 strikeouts in 5 of 7 road starts where he’s been slightly worse. Nothing too crazy as he has a 3.23 ERA but just a .77 K/9.

He’ll face off against the Brewers today who have been cold from the plate. The good news for us though is that they rank in the top 7 in K rate against RHP in August. The top of the order projects to be not so K friendly for Wacha. Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and Carlos Santana all have a K rate against RHP below 21%. This could be a regression outing from Wacha but even if he deals and goes 6 innings, he could still very well go under this total.

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