Best MLB player prop bets for today, 8/13: Texas caught in Logan's Webb

Sunday’s slate of MLB games is a very interesting one with numerous games worth tuning into and watching. Despite the Royals and Cardinals getting the day off we still have a 15-game slate to enjoy thanks to the Reds and Pirates doubleheader. Several games highlight playoff hopeful teams, and with the season winding down these matchups become even more crucial. The reeling Giants will look to snap a 4-game skid behind their ace pitcher Logan Webb, and that is where we are headed for our featured prop. Let’s dive in!

Logan Webb (Giants) over 5.5 strikeouts (+111)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds.

Logan Webb is making a push for N.L. Cy Young this season, putting together another fantastic season. Among qualified pitchers this season the 26-year-old right-hander ranks 11th in FIP, 3rd in xFIP, 3rd in SIERA, 1st in GB%, and has the 3rd lowest BB%. His 20.6% K-BB% is a personal best mark for his career and can be attributed to his deadly combination of a 66.3% first pitch strike rate, and 32.1% chase rate. Jumping ahead of batters and then getting them to chase your junk is the name of the game, and Webb has been about as good as anyone this season at doing just that. Among 104 qualified pitchers this season Webb gets ahead 0-2 on his opponents at the 36th highest rate, a 27.4% clip. Once ahead of his opponents, Webb primarily uses 3 pitches as his put away offering.

His changeup leads his arsenal with 38.6% usage overall, and 46.2% usage with 2 strikes. That offering has been his best pitch, generating a 23.4% put away rate and accounting for 75 of his 151 Ks this season. Texas, his opponent today, has struggled against right-handed changeups in the last 30 days, striking out at the 5th highest rate and posting the 11th lowest wOBA in that span. Webb’s slider breaks in the opposite direction of his changeup and contributes to his strikeout total against either handedness, gaining a higher whiff rate against righty batters. While his sinker doesn’t generate many whiffs, the command of this pitch is elite as he can dot it on the edges for looked strikes with regularity. Overall, Webb generates 30.5% of his strikes via looking strikes, the highest rate among qualifiers. His 48 looking Ks rank 4th in baseball behind Mitch Keller, Gerrit Cole, and Zach Eflin. Having home plate umpire Doug Eddings calling balls and strikes should help his cause in that department as well, with Eddings being known as a pitcher-friendly umpire typically.

Texas has seen their lineup a bit depleted recently with injuries to all-stars Jonah Heim and Josh Jung. While Jung is a high strikeout rate bat, Heim is not, and their combined absence in the middle of the order is missed. Texas has a deep lineup which allows them to remain a good offense, but their replacement bats have less plate discipline than the everyday starters. Outside of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, each batter in today’s projected lineup has a K% of at least 21.1% against RHP this season with 5 batters at 24% or higher. If rookie J.P Martinez makes another appearance he is a great target, as his 24.0% K% from AAA is projected to be at 31.6% for the rest of the season the majors according to THE BATx projections.

Webb’s workload is an aspect of this play that I love. On the season he averages 95.5 pitches per start regardless of splits. When on 6 days or more of rest, as he is today, he has faced 24 or more batters in each start (averaging 25.25), while recording 12, 6, 11, and 7 Ks in those starts. The Giants have lost 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7, yet still hold a playoff spot as a wild card participant. With their ace on the mound in a game they really would like to win, I expect a full workload and 6 or more strikeouts from Webb in this matchup.

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