Best MLB player prop bet for today, 7/20: J.P. France fries the Athletics

The matinee slate of MLB has already begun for today but we’re looking for betting value in the nightcap; despite having just 3 Games to work with, I have found a gem with a pitcher. Here is my best player prop bet for the evening of Thursday, July 20.

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J.P. France, HOU, Under 5.5 hits allowed (-140)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing; recommended 0.75u wager.

The Oakland Athletics are coming off back to back upset wins over the Boston Red Sox and will stay at home to face the Houston Astros. We’re getting a sell-high opportunity on one of the worst offenses in baseball and I’ll gladly take it. J.P. France may not be a household name yet, but he certainly gets the job done often. He has stayed under this line in 6 of his 12 starts this season, 4 out of 7 on the road and 5 of his 8 starts on exactly 5 days of rest — which is the case today.

Since June 1, the Athletics’ offense ranks #16 in home wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in the first 6.0 innings despite ranking #1 in walk rate. In that span, Oakland ranks #28 in expected batting average against right-handed 4-seam fastballs and cutters, which are the 2 pitches France throws the most and allows the most damage against. If the Astros starter gets wild, he will walk his fair share of hitters — but he likely won’t give up damage off the bat against this team.

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