The Pittsburgh Pirates wrapped up with a 76-86 record last season, placing 4th in the fairly competitive National League Central Division. The Bucs showed some signs of life at the beginning of the season, posting an impressive 20-8 record through the 1st 28 games.
Pittsburgh looked to be a potential surprise team heading into May, but then the team slid back toward the bottom of the division. There were some signs of encouragement, though. The 86 losses were the fewest in a full season since 2018, and it snapped a 2-year run with triple-digit loss totals.
It was the 2nd consecutive season the team didn’t finish in the basement of the NL Central, too. But can this team improve enough over the course of a full season to make it back to the postseason for the 1st time since 2015. Let’s analyze the Pittsburgh Pirates’ World Series odds, along with their projected win total, playoff, division and NL odds as we make our expert MLB picks and predictions.
Pittsburgh Pirates World Series odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday, March 26, at 6:58 p.m. ET.
Odds: +20000 (bet $100 to win $20,000)
The Pirates do not have the longest odds to win the World Series, but they’re much closer to the long-shots than they are to the favorites.
In their own division, the St. Louis Cardinals (+3000), who finished behind the Pirates in 2023, are the team with the shortest World Series odds among NL Central squads. The Chicago Cubs (+3500) are next, followed by the Cincinnati Reds (+5500) and the Milwaukee Brewers (+9000), with the Bucs holding up the end.
The Los Angeles Dodgers (+320) are the favorites, followed by the Atlanta Braves (+450), Houston Astros (+700), New York Yankees (+900) and the defending champion Texas Rangers (+1400) and Baltimore Orioles (+1400).
At +20000, Pittsburgh has an implied probability of winning the World Series of 0.50% or 200/1 fractional odds.
The Colorado Rockies and Oakland Athletics are tied for the longest odds at +50000. The Chicago White Sox and Washington Nationals are next at +25000, with the Bucs next at +20000.
The Pirates have an uphill battle just to get to respectability, and the NL Central is going to be a war this season, with 3 legitimate postseason contenders. The Pirates aren’t one of them.
AVOID.
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Pittsburgh Pirates playoff odds
Will they make the playoffs: Yes +400 | No -650
The Pirates actually have a pretty impressive lineup. While cleanup hitter DH Andrew McCutcheon is getting a little long in the tooth, at least in terms of the others on the roster, this team has a solid base. SS Oneil Cruz had a serious ankle injury, but he is healthy again and expected to be the table setter at the top. OF Brian Reynolds and 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes give this team a solid, young corps to build around offensively.
After McCutcheon, things become a little less clear. OF Jack Suwinski could be solid, and C Henry Davis is youthful, and ready to handle the chores behind the dish. He was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft.
The team isn’t planning on rushing SP Paul Skenes, a fellow No. 1 overall pick from the 2023 MLB Draft, and he begins in the minors. He has been tickling triple digits on the radar gun, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him at some point this summer.
Until then, RHP Mitch Keller, in the Steel City on a long-term deal, is the bedrock in the rotation, followed by veteran LHPs Martin Perez and Marco Gonzalez. There is some veteran talent there. The pitching isn’t deep, and 1 or 2 others really exceed expectations to get this team into contention.
No (-650) is likely the outcome, but you can’t risk 6 1/2 times your potential return. However, playing a few dollars on YES (+400) for a chance to multiply up by 4 times isn’t a terrible idea if you have some funds you don’t mind tying up for the summer.
Pittsburgh Pirates win total
Over/Under: 75.5 (O: -118 | U: -104)
This team won 76 games last season, and they’re arguably better this season.
We may or may not see Skenes, but we might not need to see him to get this total across the finish line. At a minimum, I could see this team eclipsing the OVER 75.5 WINS (-110) in the final week of the season, but 80 wins shouldn’t be scoffed at. This team could easily compete to at least go .500, and that’s not bad. The arrow for the Pirates is definitely pointing upwards.
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To win NL Central Division
- St. Louis Cardinals +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Chicago Cubs +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
- Cincinnati Reds +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
- Milwaukee Brewers +700 (bet $100 to win $700)
- Pittsburgh Pirates +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200)
Pittsburgh has an implied probability of winning the NL Central of 7.69% or 12/1 fractional odds.
The Pirates have a much better chance of finishing 4th or 5th in the division than they do competing for the top spot. The Cardinals and Cubs are free-spending, and the Reds have an assortment of exciting, young talent. The Bucs will mostly be competing with the gutted Brewers to avoid the cellar in the NL Central.
PASS.
To win National League
Odds: +10000 (bet $100 to win $10,000)
The Pirates will do well to exceed their win total, and perhaps get to, or crack, the .500 mark.
This isn’t a team ready to contend for the World Series, but the blueprint is in place by general manager Ben Cherington to have some long-term success, locking key, young building blocks in place for a sustained run. However, that run isn’t happening in 2024.
AVOID.
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