The Boston Red Sox (7-5) welcome the Baltimore Orioles (7-4) to Fenway Park Thursday. First pitch in the finale of the 3-Game series is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles at Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 2-0
The Red Sox had won 6 of their last 7 coming into this series against Baltimore but Boston has dropped the 1st 2 games by a combined 14-6 after Wednesday’s 7-5 loss. Boston is 8-4 against the spread (ATS) and sits 3rd in the American League East.
The Orioles sit 2nd in the division and have won 4 of their last 6 games. They are 6-5 ATS on the season and 3-2 straight up on the road. Baltimore finished 1st in the division last season and was the only AL team to win 100+ games.
Orioles at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Grayson Rodriguez vs. RHP Garrett Whitlock
Rodriguez (2-0, 2.19 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 12 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-2 road win over the Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
- 2023 away splits: 3-2, 4.08 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 26 ER — 8 HR), 18 BB, 69 K in 11 starts
Whitlock (1-0, 0.96 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 11.6 K/in 9 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 2-1 road loss to the Los Angeles Angels Saturday
- 2023 home splits: 3-1, 4.37 ERA (35 IP, 17 ER — 2 HR), 10 BB, 38 K in 10 appearances (4 starts)
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Orioles at Red Sox odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles -122 (bet $122 to win $100) | Red Sox +104 (bet $100 to win $104)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+132) | Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)
Orioles at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 4, Orioles 3
Moneyline
BET RED SOX (+104).
Whitlock has been terrific this season. The Red Sox have allowed 3 runs in his 2 starts. Boston has scored at least 5 runs in 3 of its last 5 games, so if that offense stays consistent with how Whitlock has been pitching, it could get its 1st home win of the season.
The Orioles are 3-3 straight up following a win and have allowed 6 runs through Rodriguez’s 2 starts. It isn’t easy to sweep teams and is even more difficult on the road. Expect Boston to be able to the 3rd game of the series with how well Whitlock has pitched. Take RED SOX (+104).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There isn’t much value here either way as the Red Sox are too expensive as a run line underdog, and the Orioles aren’t worth the gamble as a plus-money favorite.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-106).
The pitchers have been too good to expect many runs in this game. The Red Sox are 0-2 O/U in games that Whitlock has started while the Orioles are 1-1 O/U in games Rodriguez has started.
They are 2-3-2 O/U in their last 7 games as well. Baltimore has scored 4 or fewer in 2 of its last 4 and allowed 5 or fewer in every game this season. Considering those trends, back UNDER 8.5 (-106).
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