Australian Open 2024 Men's Singles Title Winner Picks, Odds & Best Bets

Although Rafael Nadal has withdrawn from the tournament, the men’s singles comPetition at the Australian Open offers plenty of intrigue. Novak Djokovic is a 10-time champion at Melbourne Park and has not lost there since 2018, but the next generation – headlined by Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner – is coming (if not already here). Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev are also very real contenders.

Is Djokovic in line to lift yet another trophy Down Under? Will Alcaraz’s rise continue? Could we see a first-time Grand Slam winner such as Sinner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, or Holger Rune?

Here are the odds and my picks for the men’s side at the 2024 Australian Open.

Australian Open men’s singles odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Novak Djokovic -105
Carlos Alcaraz +320
Jannik Sinner +700
Daniil Medvedev +1100
Alexander Zverev +2500
Holger Rune +2700
Alex de Minaur +3000
Grigor Dimitrov +4000
Stefanos Tsitsipas +5500
Andrey Rublev +6500
Casper Ruud +6500
Ben Shelton +7000

3-star value play: Jannik Sinner (+700)

Sinner was outstanding from start to finish in 2023, but it was the end of his season that really established him as a serious threat to win Grand Slams in 2024. The 22-year-old Italian captured titles in Beijing and Vienna, upset Djokovic on the way to a runner-up performance at the Nitto ATP Finals and beat Djokovic again while leading Italy to its second-ever Davis Cup triumph. What will Sinner do for an encore this season? Don’t be surprised if he starts with the bang in the form of an Australian Open title. Landing in the same half of the draw as Djokovic isn’t ideal, but Sinner has already proven multiple times that he isn’t afraid of the world #1. Even as the third favorite, Sinner has good value at +700.

2-star value play: Alexander Zverev (+2500)

Although it’s tempting to sprinkle some on Djokovic right around even money, longshots have better value. The Serb is 36 years old, Alcaraz isn’t exactly dominant in the relatively nascent stages of his career, Roger Federer has retired and Nadal is hurt, so slam titles – including this one – may be somewhat up for grabs in 2024. Zverev could be one to capitalize. The sixth-ranked German wrapped up last season in stellar form after recovering from a bad ankle injury sustained at the 2022 French Open. Zverev came within 1 set of winning the 2020 U.S. Open and has been to 5 other slam semifinals (including at the 2020 Aussie Open); he knows how to get it done on the big stage. 

1-star value play: Grigor Dimitrov (+4000)

Like Zverev, Dimitrov has a favorable road through the tournament on the opposite side of the bracket from Djokovic and Sinner. At 32 years old, the resurgent Bulgarian is back up to #13 in the world thanks to an awesome 2023 campaign a season-opening title last week in Brisbane. Dimitrov is storming into Melbourne with a ton of momentum, and he has played well there in the past. He advanced to the semifinals in 2017 and has been to the quarters on 3 other occasions. Dimitrov has a very realistic chance to reach the final, and if Sinner can upset Djokovic in the top-half semifinal then the door to a surprise title would really be open.