The Atlanta Braves (9-5) take on the Houston Astros (6-11) Monday in the opener of a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park at 8:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Astros won 3-0 last year
The Braves took 2 of 3 from the flailing Miami Marlins over the weekend, capping it off with a 9-7 win Sunday. DH Marcell Ozuna continues to crush the ball, hitting .373 (5th in MLB), with 7 HR (1st) and 21 RBI (1st). This is a team that is going to have to rely on its tied-for-MLB-best 6.5 R/Game after losing stud RHP Spencer Strider (elbow) for the season.
The Astros have stumbled out of the gates, but they took 2 of 3 from the World Series champion Texas Rangers over the weekend. They won 8-5 Sunday and scored 8+ runs in all 3 games. 2B Jose Altuve leads the way with a .382 BA, 5 HR, 7 RBI and 14 R on the young season.
Braves at Astros projected starters
RHP Darius Vines vs. RHP Spencer Arrighetti
Vines makes his 1st start and 3rd start of his career.
- 0-0 with a 3.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 11 K in 12 IP in 2 GS at Gwinnett (AAA)
- Utilizes a 4-seamer (only 90 mph), cutter, changeup and slider
- Has never faced Houston before
- Was 1-0 with a 3.98 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 5 games, 2 starts, over 20 1/3 IP in 2023
Arrighetti allowed 7 ER on 7 H and 3 BB and struck out 3 over 3 IP in his MLB debut loss to the Kansas City Royals Wednesday.
- Went 9-7 with a 4.40 ERA in 28 games, 21 GS, between Double-A and Triple-A last year
- Utilizes a 4-seamer (94.8 mph), cutter, sweeper, curveball, slider and changeup
- Has never faced Atlanta
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Braves at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:31 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Astros -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+135) | Astros +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Braves at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 8, Braves 6
Moneyline
I look for Houston to tee off on Vines’ 90-mph heater. The only question is can Arrighetti keep the Astros in the game? The Braves are 23rd in MLB with a 4.90 team ERA, and they have allowed 6.5 R/game over the last 8 games. Meanwhile, the Astros’ bats have awakened.
Take the ASTROS -115.
Run line/Against the spread
I’m zoning in on JOSE ALTUVE OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (+115), as it looks mispriced. Altuve had 2+ total bases in 4 of 5 games and had 14 in the last 2 games.
BetMGM has offered some users a Bet Insurance Token for any bet -300 or longer. This is the perfect way to utilize it.
Over/Under
Both teams are 7-3 O/U over the last 10, and this figures to continue the trend. There is a 13.9-mph wind blowing out to right-center, and we have 2 unknowns on the bump.
Take the OVER 10.5 (-110).
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