The Arizona Diamondbacks (11-12) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (9-13) Monday in the opener of a 3-Game set at Busch Stadium at 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: D-backs lead 2-1
The Diamondbacks, who are coming off a 4-game split at San Francisco, are feast or famine. They are 5-5 in their last 10, and one stretch saw them lose 5-0 and follow that up with a 17-1 win. Arizona took 2 of 3 at home against St. Louis 2 weekends ago. The D-backs are tied for 3rd with 5.7 runs per game and 4th with a .334 OBP.
The Cards were swept at home by the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend. They were outscored 16-6 as the Cards repeatedly left the bases loaded and failed to drive in runners in scoring position with less than 2 outs — Five of those 6 runs were scored in the Saturday game. 1B Paul Goldschmidt was dropped from 2nd to 5th in the order Sunday as he’s hitting .179 with 1 homer and 8 RBIs.
Diamondbacks at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. RHP Lance Lynn
Pfaadt (1-1, 5.32 ERA) makes his 5th start of 2024. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over 23 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-3 home defeat vs. Chicago Cubs Wednesday
- April 12 vs. Cards: No-decision, 6 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 9-6 home loss
Lynn (1-0, 2.18 ERA) also makes his 5th start of the season. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 20 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 3-2 victory at Oakland Athletics Tuesday
- Last 5 regular-season starts vs. D-backs: 3-1, 3.30 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33 K in 30 IP
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Diamondbacks at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:25 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+150) | Cardinals +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Diamondbacks at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 4, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
Lynn’s biggest issue has been giving up the long ball, and he has given up 4 of them this year. Three came in one start, though. Busch Stadium has played like a pitcher’s paradise thus far, and the Cards got to Pfaadt for 6 runs 10 days ago.
Take the CARDINALS (-110) to snap their 4-game losing streak.
Run line/Against the spread
I’m foregoing the spread here and honing in on Lynn. He has gone exactly 6 IP in his last 5 starts against Arizona. He went 7 IP in his last start, and he admitted his game plan was to allow hitters to swing early in counts and get themselves out. He was fine with just 1 K. The Diamondbacks are the 2nd-toughest team to whiff, and I could see a similar gameplan.
Take LANCE LYNN OVER 16.5 OUTS (-120).
Over/Under
This one is dicey, but I’m siding with the Under. These teams hit 2 Unders in Arizona, more of a hitters’ park. Arizona is 4-5-1 O/U in their last 10, and St. Louis is 3-7.
Take the UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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