The Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees clash Monday as they continue their best-of-5 ALDS. Game 2 at Yankee Stadium is slated for 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: New York leads 1-0; New York won 5-2 in the regular season series
The Yankees took Saturday’s opener 6-5 as -201 home favorites with the Over (8) hitting in the top of the 6th inning.
There were 4 lead changes in the first 5½ innings. Kansas City led 1-0 after 2½ innings, 3-2 after 4½ innings and 5-4 after 5½ innings. New York tied it in the bottom of the 6th on C Austin Wells’ 2-out, RBI single and took the lead for good on LF Alex Verdugo’s 2-out RBI single in the bottom of the 7th — Verdugo (2-for-3, 2 runs, 1 RBI), the Yankees’ No. 9 hitter, scored the tying run in the 6th.
Including regular-season games, Kansas City is 4-16 across its last 20 games at Yankee Stadium dating back to July 2018.
The Yankees are 15-8 since Sept. 6. They outscored the Royals 48-29 — averaging 6.0 runs per game — in the 8 head-to-head battles this season, including Saturday’s opener.
Royals at Yankees projected starters
LHP Cole Ragans vs. LHP Carlos Rodon
Ragans (11-9, 3.14 ERA) made 32 regular-season starts. He had a 1.14 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and an AL-best 10.8 K/9 in 186 1/3 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 1-0 win at Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of AL Wild Card Series Tuesday in 1st career postseason appearance
- Career vs. Yankees: 0-0, 2.57 ERA (7 IP, 2 ER), 3 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
- 2024 vs. Yankees, 1 start, no-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 4-3 loss in 11 innings at Yankee Stadium Sept. 11
- Clocked a 1.08 ERA (25 IP, 3 ER) across 4 starts in September
Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA) started 32 games in the regular season. He had a 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 175 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 4-2 home loss vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 27
- Career vs. Royals: 4-6, 4.66 ERA (67 2/3 IP, 35 ER),1.49 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 13 starts
- 2024 vs. Royals: 1-0, 2.08 ERA (13 IP, 3 ER), 10 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 12 K in 2 starts
- Posted a 2.92 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 16 ER) over his last 9 starts
- Career postseason: 0-1, 13.50 ERA (2 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 4 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 2 games (1 start), both for Chicago White Sox in 2020 and ’21
Royals at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 2:29 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Royals +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Yankees -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-185) | Yankees -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Royals at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Royals 4
Moneyline
New York took 2 of 3 from Kansas City in a Yankee Stadium series last month (Sept. 9-11). The Yanks are 4-1 across their last 5 games after an off day.
The Yankees’ regular-season line against lefty pitching does not pop off the page. But their .721 OPS in such situations includes a 2nd-half surge in that department.
As mentioned above, Ragans is making just his 2nd postseason appearance. He has pitched just 2 2/3 career postseason innings, and they have not gone well (4 runs allowed on 4 hits and 4 walks). But the New York port-sider pitched well down the stretch and he has an excellent line against current K.C. bats (.641 OPS allowed, according to ESPN).
The long rest for Rodon is certainly a consideration. Over his career, the left-hander has a allowed a .698 OPS; he’s held foes to a .663 mark when pitching on 6-plus days of rest.
The Yankees received good non-Soto-and-Judge production Saturday. That’s a good sign for their offense, which is not at its best when too reliant on the meat of the batting order.
The Game 1 win gives New York a cushion and perhaps some loose confidence. The same words might well apply to a Yankee bullpen that had its struggles in the regular season but could have benefited greatly from the 5-day reset it had while awaiting Wild Card Series results.
New York had a plus-18 run differential against Kansas City in the regular season.
BACK YANKEES (-150).
Run line/Against the spread
No interest. PASS.
Over/Under
The Over 8 cashed Saturday, and the Over is 7-1-1 across New York’s last 9 Games.
A hedge against both starters makes sense in this one. Even though Rodon is perhaps slightly undervalued in this matchup, he tends to allow loud contact and has lately even in a string of good work over recent weeks.
The weather report calls for a breeze blowing out to right, and the OVER 7.5 (-110) has value for this contest.
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