76ers vs Lakers Picks, Predictions & Odds 3-22-2024 - NBA

The Philadelphia 76ers season began with so much promise. Written off as an East contender because of the James Harden trade, they responded with the best start of the Joel Embiid era, but Embiid's meniscus injury has seen him sidelined for nearly two months — and Philadelphia has cratered.

The Los Angeles Lakers don’t have any such excuses. While they’ve dealt with the bumps and bruises typical of any NBA team, LeBron James and Anthony Davis are on track to play more games this season than any since the Bubble.

If they want to beat the NBA odds and make another run to the Western Conference Finals, it very likely will have to come through the play-in.

My free NBA picks for 76ers vs. Lakers on Friday, March 22 zero in on Most Improved Player frontrunner Tyrese Maxey and how he’s shouldering the offensive load without the reigning MVP.

76ers vs Lakers odds

76ers vs Lakers predictions

Tyrese Maxey is still atop the Most Improved Player odds board, but he’s been steadily losing ground to other candidates lately, notably Coby White. That’s because the foundation of Maxey’s case has begun to come undone as Joel Embiid continues to miss time. 

Maxey began the season by ramping up his productivity and efficiency. Thrust onto the ball as the team's lead decision-making guard after the departure of James Harden, he formed a synergistic partnership with Embiid and made his first All-Star team.

But while Maxey’s production is still a big step up from prior years, his efficiency has cratered. While he’s shot well clear of 40% from deep in each of the past two seasons, he's down to 37.7% now.

That makes these Tyrese Maxey odds a bit off the mark. Tyrese hasn’t averaged more than 3.0 threes a game in any period outside the beginning of October and in March, he’s making just 2.9 per game.

In his last 17 games, Maxey has made more than three treys just four times, or just 23.5% of the time. Even juiced at -140, there's significant value in betting on the same result here, particularly as we've seen how the Los Angeles Lakers like to defend against a small guard when he’s the only dangerous offensive weapon.

One of the Lakers' best wins of the season was their road victory over the Knicks on February 3. They held Jalen Brunson to just 1-6 shooting from deep even though he played 45 minutes and had 36 points. 

They doubled and blitzed him regularly in pick-and-roll actions, meaning he had to split the double, pass off the ball and get it back, or go straight isolation to generate shots in the half-court. They also face-guarded him constantly. 

That is tiring work and Brunson is of sturdier build than Maxey with an almost bottomless gas tank. It also leaves little chance to generate a spot up three. On pull-up threes, Maxey is shooting just 31.8% on the year.

He's still deadly from the corners, but without Embiid on the floor to generate doubles in the post, he’s not getting many of those looks. He has to generate the open shots for himself and his team every time down and he’s thus forced into above-the-break shots almost exclusively, which he's not nearly as effective with.

Fatigue, reduced shot quality, and the defensive matchup make this my best bet for Friday’s matchup.

My best bet: Tyrese Maxey Under 3.5 made threes (-140 at bet365)

76ers vs Lakers same-game parlay

It’s hard to know what to make of this Lakers team. In theory, this is a defense-first squad, but they've been a Bottom-5 defense over the past two weeks. Yet they’re still +6.1 in net rating because they’ve cobbled together the NBA’s second-best offense in that time, with a staggering 126.2 offensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass.

However, it's the enormous foul disparity between these teams that makes me feel good about the Lakers covering the -7. The Philadelphia 76ers foul constantly. Since Embiid went out, they have the second-highest opponent foul rate in the NBA while barely getting to the line themselves. 

The Lakers are on the exact opposite end of the spectrum, drawing tons of fouls and never committing any in turn. That alone is enough to tip the balance of this game toward double digits, particularly because of AD and LeBron's size advantages in their matchups.

For a little extra juice at the backend of my SGP, I'll add Davis to not hit a three. After one hot Bubble run, it looked like Davis was a legit outside shooter, but that has proved to be just an aberration. He barely shoots threes and even more rarely makes them these days.

Through eight games in March, he’s made just two threes and in four of those eight games, he didn’t even attempt one. This is a game that AD should dominate in the post against Paul Reed, so I suspect he won’t spend much time floating on the perimeter.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

76ers vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Lakers opened as much as -9.5 point favorites for Friday’s tilt, but that’s shrunk to as low as -7 at some sportsbooks. While L.A. hasn’t played since Monday, the 76ers got trounced by the Suns on Wednesday. The 76ers are just 6-9 against the spread with a rest disadvantage this season.

The 76ers are also just 10-15 ATS as underdogs this season. Almost all of that naturally has come since Embiid’s injury. Their team concept simply doesn’t work on either end without him, and they're exploitable by a team with the Lakers' size.

Friday’s total has been some serious movement. It opened as high as 227.5 at some sportsbooks, dropped as far as 222, and is now anywhere from 222 to 225 at the time of writing. 

While LeBron and AD are both officially questionable, that’s been their status in practically every game this season and they have been suiting up. As this is a winnable home game, I’d be minorly shocked if either was a late scratch.

The 76ers have the league’s worst offense over the past two weeks. Yes, that includes the two record-setting slugfests they played against the Knicks, but they also failed to score 100 points against the Heat and Pelicans in that same span.

Against teams with real defensive size and rim protection, they are being held to low scores without Embiid. The Under is now 16-9 when the 76ers are underdogs.

76ers vs Lakers betting trend to know

The 76ers are 10-15 ATS as underdogs this season. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Lakers.

76ers vs Lakers game info

76ers vs Lakers latest injuries

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