76ers vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds 4-4-2024 - NBA

Joel Embiid made his return to the Philadelphia 76ers lineup on Tuesday night and his impact was immediate, leading his team to a win over one of the top teams in the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Is Embiid back in time to save the Sixers' season and maybe even pull them out of the play-in round? A win against the Miami Heat tonight would go a long way but will the reigning MVP be on the court?

I break down the NBA odds and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks for the Heat vs. 76ers on April 4.

76ers vs Heat odds

76ers vs Heat predictions

So. Joel Embiid is just a teensy bit important to the success of the Philadelphia 76ers, huh? 

Embiid made his return to the court eight weeks after suffering a knee injury and immediately led the Sixers in usage rate, putting up 24 points with seven assists and six rebounds in 29 minutes of action. Now, the Thunder didn’t have MVP-candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but this was a promising performance. 

Now we're left to wonder if Embiid will play in two straight games. Him being healthy is everything for the Sixers if they have any hope of making a playoff run. Embiid, along with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are all listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup against the Miami Heat, but reportedly all participated in the team’s shootaround today.

The Heat on the other hand would love to keep Philly in the play-in round. Miami currently holds the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference and is 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread in the last four games Jimmy Butler has played.

Even if Embiid is on the court tonight it’s likely his conditioning still isn’t close to 100%, which to me means trying to defend Heat center Bam Adebayo could be a problem.

Adebayo is averaging 19.7 points and 10.6 rebounds per game this season and is on a pretty good run at the moment. He’s topped 20 points in six of his last nine games on an uber-efficient 63.3% shooting from the floor.

Bam has also been a problem for Philly this season, going for 20, 23, and 26 points in three matchups. Embiid hasn’t played in any of those games, but even with their MVP on the court defending the paint has been an issue. The Sixers ranked 20th in opponent points in the paint per game prior to Embiid’s extended absence at the end of January.

Embiid or no Embiid, Bam is a tough matchup and I like him to go Over 18.5 points in a game important to the Heat.

My best bet: Bam Adebayo Over 18.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

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76ers vs Heat same-game parlay

Another thing the 76ers aren’t great at that gets worse without Joel Embiid is rebounding. They rank 22nd in rebounding rate for the season and that dropped to 27th without their star big.

So, let’s double up with Bam and add his Over 10.5 rebounds to this SGP. He's averaging 10.6 per game this season and has gone Over this number six times in his last 11 games and in all three meetings against Philly.

And let’s close this SGP out with Duncan Robinson to go Over 2.5 assists. His assists have been a little down his return from injury but Robinson is averaging 3.5 dimes per game as a starter and the Sixers rank 15th in opponent assists per possession this season.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

76ers vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Heat opened this matchup as 3-point home favorites and have been steadily faded down to the -2 to -1.5 range as of Thursday afternoon.
• After a rough stretch without Embiid, the Sixers found their groove and covered seven of the last nine games without him, and covered the spread in his return to action as well.
• The total for this matchup hit the board at a low 210 and is currently sitting at 209.5.
• That's the lowest total on the board today but nothing out of the norm for these teams who have played to the Under in seven of the last 10 meetings.

76ers vs Heat betting trend to know

The Heat have covered six of the last eight meetings against the 76ers. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Heat.

76ers vs Heat game info

76ers vs Heat latest injuries

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