2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player Predictions, Odds and Betting Preview: Wemby Warning

2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player odds

Player
Victor Wembanyama	+750	+650	+650
Jalen Williams	+1,100	+1,400	+1,200
Evan Mobley	+1,200	+1,400	+1,100
Jalen Johnson	+1,400	+1,100	+1,400
Jonathan Kuminga	+1,600	+1,100	+1,000
Josh Giddey	+1,600	+1,100	+1,200
Cade Cunningham	+1,800	+3,000	+2,200
Scottie Barnes	+2,000	+3,000	+2,000
Immanuel Quickley	+2,500	+2,500	+2,200
Coby White	+3,000	+6,000	+3,300

Odds as of 10-19-2024.

Don't bet on Victor Wembanyama

The NBA Most Improved Player award has some strange unofficial rules and is often not awarded to the player you might expect. You’d think it would go to a player who comes out of nowhere, jumping their scoring average from 5 points per Game to 16 points per Game. While that has taken place in the past, it’s not the norm for this award.

Typically, it is given to a player who elevates their game from productive starter to NBA All-Star. It is also rarely awarded to a player in his second season because improvement is expected from rookies. 

This is where Victor Wembanyama doesn’t fit the criteria, especially as someone who was hyped as a generational talent and won NBA Rookie of the Year last season.

What dramatic statistical jump can he make that would allow him to win Most Improved Player? He was simply too dominant in his first season to have a realistic shot at MIP in his second. If the NBA wants to give the San Antonio Spurs center an award this season, it’s more likely to be Defensive Player of the Year, not MIP.

The last second-year player to win MIP was Monta Ellis in 2006-2007, and that was a unique case. Ellis was nearly invisible as a rookie but then exploded the next season — averaging 16.3 points as a starter for the Warriors.

If Wembanyama were trading at +10,000, I could understand taking a flier on him in this market due to his unique talent, but he’s the favorite at +750 on DraftKings. If you’re expecting a statistical leap from Wembanyama and want to back him, I’d suggest looking at the First Team All-NBA market on DraftKings, where he’s trading at +650 after opening at +900.

Favorite: Jalen Williams (+1,400 at FanDuel)

Williams' stats are also at a point where we could see him make a similar leap as recent award winners like Ja Morant, Brandon Ingram, and Julius Randle — jumping from the high teens (19.1 ppg) to the mid-20s in scoring average.

Additionally, the Thunder traded Josh Giddey in the offseason, so it's very likely that there will be an increased offensive role for Williams in this Thunder lineup, as Lu Dort and Alex Caruso remain more known for their defense. 

I really like Williams in this market, but this price has tightened from +2,000 to +1,400 throughout the summer, so I'd wait for a better number before placing a bet.

Favorite: Jaden Ivey (+6,000 at BetRivers)

I love Jaden Ivey in this market, and I hit the button at +9,900 and +8,000 during the preseason for Ivey to secure MIP.

Like Williams, Ivey finds himself in his third season in the NBA. After spending a season in Monty Williams' doghouse and seeing his stats flatline, it creates an opportunity for a big statistical jump for Ivey in his third season. 

Ivey only played 28.8 minutes per game last season, so even just the potential minute boost under JB Bickerstaff would increase his stats. The Detroit Pistons added floor spacers to their roster in the offseason, which will provide Ivey with more driving lanes. 

The Detroit guard also worked with new shooting coach Fred Vinson to improve his three-point jumper, and it's looked smooth during preseason action. If Ivey is knocking down jumpers with his electric speed, I could see him averaging 20+ points per game this season.

Longshot: Ben Simmons (+15,000 at FanDuel)

Hear me out on this one. 

Ben Simmons has completely disappeared for three seasons due to injury, but what if he comes back, drops a 20-8-8 stat line for the season, and does it with some form of a jump shot? I'm not talking about knocking down three-pointers at a 40% clip, but maybe some mid-range shots and the occasional 3-pointer.

The 20-8-8 stat line is not unrealistic at all; we have seen 17-8-8 from him before, and Simmons now finds himself on a bad Brooklyn Nets team where his usage could be high as a point forward in Jordi Fernandez's offense.

At +15,000, I'm throwing coffee money on this.