The New York Yankees and LA Dodgers meet in Game 1 of the best-of-7 World Series Friday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Dodgers won 2-1
These teams met in a 3-game series at Yankee Stadium June 7-9. The Dodgers won June 7 as a moderate favorite (-160) by a 2-1 score. On June 8, the Dodgers routed the Yankees 11-3 as a slight ‘dog (-102) as the Over (8.5) hit, and New York salvaged the series finale with a 6-4 victory as an underdog (+120) as the Over (7) again connected.
The Yankees won in 4 games in the ALDS against the Kansas City Royals, although 2 of the games were decided by a single run, and the other 2 games were decided by 2 runs. The Under cashed in 3 of those 4 games.
In the ALCS, New York topped Cleveland in 5 Games, although each of the 5 Games were decided by 3 or fewer runs. The Over went 3-1-1 in the ALCS.
For the Dodgers, they were able to shake off the San Diego Padres in the NLDS, erasing a 2-1 series deficit. The Over went 3-1-1 in those games.
In the NLCS, LA topped the other New York team, the Mets, with 2 shutout victories, while winning in 6 games. LA managed 8 or more runs in 4 of those games, including 10 runs in both Games 4 and 6. The Over cashed in all 6 of the outings.
Yankees at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Jack Flaherty
Cole (8-5, 3.41 ERA) made 17 regular-season starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 95 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 6-3 home victory vs. Guardians in Game 2 of ALCS Oct. 15
- 2024 road splits (regular season): 5-3, 2.49 ERA (47 IP, 13 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 12 BB, 51 K, .198 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 8 starts
- Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 4-2, 5.01 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 8 starts
- Didn’t face LA in 2024 regular season
- 2024 postseason: 1-0, 3.31 ERA (16 1/3 IP), 1.53 WHIP, 12 K in 3 starts
- Career postseason: 11-6, 2.98 ERA (120 2/3 IP), 1.03 WHIP, 146 K in 20 starts
Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA) made 28 regular-season starts. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 162 innings with the Tigers and Dodgers.
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 8 ER, 8 H (1 HR), 4 BB, 0 K in 12-6 loss at Mets in Game 5 of NLCS Oct. 18
- 2024 home splits (regular season): 5-4, 3.44 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 16 BB, 86 K, .238 OBA in 12 starts
- Career vs. Yankees (regular season): Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, an 11-4 home win July 1, 2023, with St. Louis Cardinals
- Didn’t face Yankees in 2024 regular season
- 2024 postseason: 1-2, 7.04 ERA (15 1/3 IP), 1.43 WHIP, 8 K in 3 starts
- Career postseason: 2-5, 4.91 ERA (40 1/3 IP), 1.39 WHIP, 39 K in 7 starts (8 appearances)
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Yankees at Dodgers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Dodgers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-200) | Dodgers -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Yankees at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Dodgers 4
Moneyline
The YANKEES (+105) are worth a look in the series opener on the road as they look to seize home-field advantage.
The pitching scales are tipped in favor of New York, as Cole is much more consistent than Flaherty. The latter has a dismal 7.04 ERA in 3 starts during the postseason so far.
The Dodgers (-125) won 2 of 3 Games at Yankee Stadium back in June, but Cole didn’t appear in that series.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re on the conservative side, backing Yankees +1.5 (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return. That’s a little too expensive, although if you were to fold it into a multi-leg parlay it is perfectly acceptable then.
However, as a standalone wager, backing New York on the run line is too much risk and not enough reward.
AVOID, and look to the moneyline instead.
Over/Under
OVER 8.5 (-110) is a solid play in Game 1, but go with a half-unit play at most.
There is some risk with the consistent Cole on the bump for the Yankees. However, the Dodgers cashed the Over in all 6 Games with the Mets in the NLCS, while the total has gone high at a 9-1-1 clip in the postseason so far.
For the Yankees, the Over went 3-1-1 in the series with Cleveland, while splitting 4-4-1 in the 2024 postseason.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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