What Trump’s Win Means for Crypto

This election cycle, the crypto industry poured over $100 million into races across the country, hoping to assert crypto’s relevancy as a voter issue and usher pro-crypto candidates into office. On Wednesday morning, almost all of the industry’s wishes came true. Republican candidate Donald Trump, who has lavished praise upon Bitcoin this year, won handily against his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris. And crypto PACs scored major wins in House and Senate races—most notably in Ohio, where Republican Bernie Moreno defeated crypto skeptic Sherrod Brown. 

As Trump’s numbers ascended on Tuesday night, Bitcoin hit a new record high, topping $75,000. Crypto-related stocks, including Robinhood Markets and MicroStrategy, also leapt upward. Enthusiasts now believe that Trump’s Administration will strip back regulation of the crypto industry, and that a favorable Congress will pass legislation that gives the industry more room to grow. 

“This is a huge victory for crypto,” Kristin Smith, the CEO of the Blockchain Association, a D.C.-based lobbying group, tells TIME. “I think we've really turned a corner, and we've got the right folks in place to get the policy settled once and for all.”

Trump’s crypto embrace

Many crypto fans supported Trump over Harris for several reasons. Trump spoke glowingly about crypto this year on the campaign trail, despite casting skepticism upon it for years. At the Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July, Trump floated the idea of establishing a federal Bitcoin reserve, and stressed the importance of bringing more Bitcoin mining operations to the U.S. 

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Perhaps most importantly, Trump vowed to oust Gary Gensler, the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), who has brought many lawsuits against crypto projects for allegedly violating securities laws. Gensler is a widely-reviled figure in the crypto industry, with many  accusing him of stifling innovation. Gensler, conversely, argued that it was his job to protect consumers from the massive crypto collapses that unfolded in 2022, including Terra Luna and FTX. 

Gensler’s term isn’t up until 2026, but some analysts expect him to resign once Trump takes office, as previous SEC chairs have done after the President that appointed them lost their elections. A change to SEC leadership could allow many more crypto products to enter mainstream financial markets. For the past few years, the SEC had been hesitant to approve crypto ETFs: investment vehicles that allow people to bet on crypto without actually holding it. But a judge forced Gensler’s hand, bringing Bitcoin ETFs onto the market in January. Now, under a friendlier SEC, ETFs based on smaller cryptocurrencies like Solana and XRP may be next. 

Many crypto enthusiasts are also excited by Trump’s alliance with Elon Musk, who has long championed cryptocurrencies on social media. On election night, Dogecoin, Musk’s preferred meme coin, spiked 25% to 21 cents. 

Impact in the Senate

Crypto enthusiasts are also cheering the results in the Senate, which was the focus of most of the industry’s political contributions. Crypto PACs like Fairshake spent over $100 million dollars supporting pro-crypto candidates and opposing anti-crypto candidates, in the hopes of fomenting a new Congress that would pass legislation favorable to the industry. Centrally, lobbyists hoped for a bill that would turn over crypto regulation from the SEC to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a much smaller agency. 

Read More: Crypto Is Pouring Cash Into the 2024 Elections. Will It Pay Off?

Crypto PACs particularly focused their efforts in Ohio, spending some $40 million to unseat Democrat Brown, the Senate Banking Committee Chair and a crypto critic. His opponent Moreno has been a regular attendee at crypto conferences and vowed to “lead the fight to defend crypto in the US Senate.” On Tuesday night, Moreno won, flipping control of the Senate. 

Defend American Jobs, a Crypto PAC affiliated with Fairshake, claimed credit for Brown’s defeat on Tuesday. “Elizabeth Warren ally Sherrod Brown was a top opponent of Cryptocurrency and thanks to our efforts, he will be leaving the Senate,” spokesperson Josh Vlasto wrote in a statement. “Senator-Elect Moreno’s come-from-behind win shows that Ohio voters want a leader who prioritizes innovation, protects American economic interests, and will ensure our nation’s continued technological leadership.” 

Crypto PACs notched another victory in Montana, where their preferred candidate, Republican Tim Sheehy, defeated Democrat Jon Tester. 

The rise of prediction markets

Finally, crypto enthusiasts celebrated the accuracy of prediction markets, which allow users to bet on election results using crypto. Advocates claimed that prediction markets could be more accurate than polls, because they channeled the collective wisdom of people with skin in the Game. Critics, on the other hand, dismissed them as being too volatile and based in personal sentiment and boosterism. 

For weeks, prediction markets had been far more favorable toward Trump than the polls, which portrayed Trump and Harris in a dead heat. (For example, Polymarket gave Trump a 62% chance of winning on Nov. 3.) And on election day, before any major results had been tabulated, prediction markets swung heavily towards Trump; the odds of Republicans sweeping the presidency, house and senate jumped to 44% on Kalshi. 

In the last couple months, bettors wagered over $2 billion on the presidential election on Polymarket, according to Dune Analytics. It’s still unclear whether prediction markets are actually more accurate than polls on average. But their success in this election will likely make their presence in the political arena only increase in years to come. 

Crypto’s future in the Trump era is far from guaranteed. Crypto prices are highly susceptible to global events, like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as larger macroeconomic trends. Fraudulent crypto projects like FTX, which thrived in deregulated environments, have also tanked prices in years past. Skeptics worry that more Americans being able to buy crypto will add volatility and risk to the American financial system. 

And it’s unclear how dedicated Trump actually is to crypto, or whether he will follow through on his pledges to the industry. “If he doesn’t deliver on these promises quickly, the euphoria could turn to disappointment, which has the potential to result in crypto market volatility,” Tim Kravchunovsky, founder and CEO of the decentralized telecommunications network Chirp, wrote to TIME. “We have to be prepared for this because the reality is that crypto isn’t the most important issue on Trump’s current agenda.” 

But for now, most crypto fans believe that a “bull run,” in which prices increase, is imminent, and that regulatory change is incoming. “I don't think we're going to see the same kind of hostility from the government, particularly members of Congress, as we have in the past,” says Smith. “ This is really positive news for all parts of the ecosystem.”

Andrew R. Chow’s book about crypto and Sam Bankman-Fried, Cryptomania, was published in August.