Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets - Wednesday, March 20

Prop bet #1: Matthews maxes out

Toronto Maple Leafs star Auston Matthews is in a mini-scoring funk with just three goals across his past 11 games. He’s been far more aggressive as a shooter the past two times out, though, and No. 34 has racked up 11 shots on 21 attempts. It’s pulled his shots per 60 minutes up to 23.29 during the skid, which is right in line with his 23.1 mark through the first 55 games of the season.

Fewer of Matthews' attempts have turned into shots during the slump, with just 46.2% of attempts registering as shots compared to his 53.8% mark to start the year. It’s not a major gap, but when added to his recent uptick in shot volume and the favorable matchup, I’m expecting Matthews to clear this total on Wednesday.

The Washington Capitals have the seventh-worst Corsi For percentage (44.6%) at five-on-five, and Matthews paces Toronto regulars with a 53.5% mark. Additionally, he’s averaging a healthy 21:52 of ice time per night through eight March games and is set to log big minutes with the Maple Leafs looking to avoid a three-game losing streak.

Auston Matthews prop: Over 4.5 shots (+110 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: No celly for Macceli

Arizona Coyotes winger Matias Maccelli has been skating on a new-look line featuring Alex Kerfoot and Michael Carcone. Maccelli has primarily played with center Nick Bjugstad this season, and they’ve been on the ice for 3.07 goals per 60 and a 50.4 CF% at five-on-five. It’s been just the opposite when Maccelli has flanked Kerfoot, as the duo has been on the ice for 1.77 goals per 60 and a 45.4 CF%. 

Despite skating with the No. 2 power-play unit, Maccelli has missed the scoresheet in five of the past seven games. Additionally, throughout the last two seasons, Maccelli’s points per 60 at 5-on-5 drop from 2.6 at Mullett Arena to 1.7 on the road. Meanwhile, the Dallas Stars allow the second-fewest expected goals per 60 (2.25) at 5-on-5.

Matias Maccelli prop: Under 0.5 points (-120 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Zeros for Zuc

Minnesota Wild winger Mats Zuccarello isn’t consistently playing with star Kirill Kaprizov, and the Norwegian's numbers plummet without his long-time linemate. They’ve been on the ice for 3.86 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season, and Zuccarello drops to just 1.99 when he isn’t skating alongside Kaprizov.

This isn’t a good power-play matchup for the Wild, and 52.7% of Zuccarello’s points have come with the man advantage. The Los Angeles Kings have the best penalty-kill percentage in the league, which improves to a sterling 89.6% on home ice. Add in the Kings allowing the third-fewest goals per game overall (2.48) at Crypto.com Arena, and a lot is stacking against Zuccarello on Wednesday.

Zuccarello has missed the scoresheet entirely in seven of the past 10 games, and I expect that to continue tonight.

Mats Zuccarello prop: Under 0.5 points (+135 at Bet99)