NHL

Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets - Monday, March 25

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1m ago

Mar 26, 2024 / 7259 Views

There are a pair of important Western Conference matchups on the ice on Monday, and our NHL player props have you covered for both games.

The Vegas Golden Knights are four points up on the St. Louis Blues for the final wild-card spot in the West, and it’s the Golden Knights entering the Enterprise Center as a road favorite in the NHL odds.

There is plenty on the line in the nightcap, too. The Pacific Division-leading Vancouver Canucks host the Los Angeles Kings, with both teams battling for postseason seeding. Vancouver is a point up on the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars for top seed in the conference, while Los Angeles is just two points clear of Vegas for third place in the Pacific.

Here are our free NHL picks for Monday, March 25.

NHL prop picks and best bets for March 25

Kyrou Under 0.5 points (+105 at Bet99)
Stephenson Over 0.5 points (-115 at Bet99)
Fiala Over 2.5 shots (-135 at Bet99)

Picks made on March 25 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets

Prop bet #1: Puck luck cools for Kyrou

St. Louis Blues winger Jordan Kyrou has been dropped to the second line with Pavel Buchnevich and Brandon Saad, and the trio has been caved in with a 38.3 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five this season. Kyrou is also skating on the No. 2 power-play unit, which is another hit to his offensive upside.

Still, the 25-year-old winger has posted consecutive three-point showings, including scoring a hat trick Saturday against the Minnesota Wild. I’m particularly interested in these Jordan Kyrou odds because he’s scored four times on just seven shots for a 57.1 shooting percentage the past two games, and St. Louis has a 25% team shooting percentage with Kyrou, Buchnevich and Saad on the ice at five-on-five the past three.

The surface numbers are great, but the underlying metrics are screaming for negative scoring regression for Kyrou and linemates. Additionally, Vegas is just settling back into Business, and starter Logan Thompson has stopped 41 of 43 shots across his past two starts. The Golden Knights are rolling four responsible lines at even strength, and Kyrou will spend the bulk of his night matched up against one of the top two pairs of Vegas blueliners.

Jordan Kyrou prop: Under 0.5 points (+105 at Bet99)

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Prop bet #2: Tee up Stephenson

Vegas Golden Knights forward Chandler Stephenson is cruising along a hot stretch with five goals and nine assists through his past 15 games. He’s also projected to start Monday’s game against the St. Louis Blues on the top line and No. 1 power-play unit, which means skating with No. 1 center Jack Eichel in all situations.

Stephenson boasts 97th percentile speed bursts over 20 mph, and Eichel has been a force at five-on-five with a 55.9 Corsi For percentage through nine games since returning from injury. Additionally, Eichel and Stephenson have been on the ice for a high-end 5.15 goals and 4.91 expected goals per 60 minutes when playing together the past two seasons.

So, with the Blues allowing the fifth-most expected goals per 60 (3.38) and ranking 30th with a 44.8 CF% at 5-on-5, I’m anticipating Eichel and Stephenson showing off their chemistry on Monday. I also targeted these Chandler Stephenson odds because he won’t have as many defensive responsibilities playing the wing on Eichel’s line compared to when he centers his own.

Chandler Stephenson prop: Over 0.5 points (-115 at Bet99)

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Prop bet #3: Fire up Fiala

The Vancouver Canucks suppress opposing shots with the best in the league with the fourth-fewest attempts per 60 minutes (56.08) and sixth-fewest shots per game (28.8). Still, the Los Angeles Kings line of Phillip Danault, Kevin Fiala, and Trevor Moore dominate five-on-five possession with a 57.5 Corsi For percentage, and they have a 60.4% shot share.

Fiala also has a go-to shooting role on the No. 1 power-play unit with 12.81 shots and 27.58 attempts per 60 minutes with the man advantage and just shy of team leader Adrian Kempe’s respective 13.34 and 32.73 marks.

Finally, I’ve targeted these Kevin Fiala odds because he’s cleared this shot total in 11 of his past 15 games and regularly trades at a 3.5-shot total, so this is an opportunity to take advantage of a lowered benchmark.

Kevin Fiala prop: Over 2.5 shots (-135 at Bet99)

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