Timberwolves vs Suns Predictions, Picks & Odds - 4-5-2024

Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves are set to travel to the Valley on Friday, as they will take on Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find you the best bet for this matchup. 

Good luck trying to figure out the Phoenix Suns; I have been trying all season, and they are all over the place. I swear this team could win the NBA Finals or get eliminated in the Play-In Tournament. 

Could this game between the Timberwolves and Suns on Friday be a preview of a first-round matchup in the Western Conference playoffs? 

Find out which NBA player prop I'm backing in my free NBA picks for Timberwolves vs. Suns on Friday, April 5.

Timberwolves vs Suns predictions

My best bet: Jusuf Nurkic Over 3.5 assists (+130 at bet365)

The biggest fear when it comes to betting on a Jusuf Nurkic player prop is his minutes. The Phoenix Suns aren't afraid to fade Nurkic and play a small-ball lineup if the matchup calls for it. A Game against the Golden State Warriors could potentially be a big problem, but a Game against the Minnesota Timberwolves should work in our favor the other way.

The Timberwolves have positional size and the favorite for the Defensive Player of the Year at the center position in Rudy Gobert. So not only does the matchup not make us fear that Nurkic will lose minutes, but it's probably likely he could be in for elevated minutes as the Suns will need his size on the glass.

Why the assists prop for Nurkic? Well, Nurkic is a mini-hub who doesn't really get the credit he deserves as a passer. The Suns have shown us all season that they are more than willing to get Nurkic involved in a ton of different actions as a passer, and Nurkic can rack up the assists in a hurry when he's playing alongside shooters such as Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Grayson Allen.

I expect we will see Nurkic involved in the offensive sets quite heavily on Friday, not necessarily to score but to facilitate and keep Rudy Gobert away from the rim. If Nurkic is the one facilitating from the high post or on the perimeter, Gobert playing help defense for his teammates becomes much more challenging, and it will open up cuts to the rim or shots in the mid-range for the rest of the Suns players.

The Suns' goal on offense should be to make Gobert guard Nurkic, aka give Nurkic the ball and a ton of touches, so Gobert has a more difficult time playing help defense. And don't kid yourself, Nurkic can play this role and has tremendous vision, and at 3.5 (+130) for his assists prop, I'm willing to bet on this outcome happening.

Nurkic is projected to have 3.8 assists on Friday against the Timberwolves, which isn't quite the four dimes we're looking for, but it's the +130 price point that is the key to this wager. Based on our projection, we can price Nurkic at -106, but it is available at bet365 at +130.

Timberwolves vs Suns same-game parlay

Bradley Beal just made comments to the media about how he is embracing his new role as a point guard but that his FanDuel fans aren't necessarily happy with him about it. Well, your FanDuel friends will be very happy with you if you can cash this one for us, Beal, because we are playing some alternate Overs on Beal in our same game parlay.

Yes, Beal isn't scoring, but it has also dropped his total down to 14.5 points, which means the alternate Over of 20+ points is paying out at a nice plus-money price. A month ago, you would've been only getting -110 on Beal to score 20+ points, but now we're getting +265. 

If Beal is going to score 20+ points, 3+ threes would go a long way in helping us get there, and this is where the Nurkic assists prop comes into play. I think we could see Nurkic finding Beal for some open three-pointers after the Timberwolves take away dribble handoff actions to Durant, and these two bets will work off of each other.

Learn how to bet a same-Game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Timberwolves vs Suns odds and trends

Timberwolves vs Suns live odds

Timberwolves vs Suns opening odds

• Spread: Minnesota +3 (-110) | Phoenix -3 (-110)
• Moneyline: Minnesota (+126) | Phoenix (-148)
• Over/Under: Over 220 (-110) | Under 220 (-110)

Timberwolves vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Suns opened as a 3-point favorite at FanDuel, and we have seen the line move to Suns -4.5.
• Since the opener, this line has done nothing but move toward the Suns, as we haven't seen any movement back toward the Timberwolves. 
• The total opened at FanDuel at 220, and we have seen it move 3.5 points toward the Under to 216.5. 
• Similar to the spread, we haven't seen any resistance on this total as it continues to drop, which means we could see it dip even lower than 216.5.

Timberwolves vs Suns trend

The Phoenix Suns have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+13.30 Units / 24% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Suns.

Timberwolves vs Suns game info

Timberwolves vs Suns latest injuries

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