Timberwolves vs Mavericks Prediction, Picks & Odds - Game 3

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been here before, absolutely needing a win on the road. Just like Game 7 in Denver, if Minnesota does not find a win this week against the Dallas Mavericks, their playoffs will end.

My Timberwolves vs. Mavericks predictions pinpoint one player who has fared better away from home thus far, and combining Minnesota’s desperation with that precedent directs our best bet tonight. And oddly enough, Minnesota has played better on the road this postseason, going 5-1 both outright and against the spread on the road and just 3-4 in each regard at home. 

Follow along with our NBA picks and Timberwolves vs. Mavs player prop picks with tip on Sunday, May 25, at 8:00 ET.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks prediction

My best bet
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 threes (+138 at BetRivers)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
The Minnesota Timberwolves' two best scorers have played terribly in this series. Karl-Anthony Towns has shot 10-for-36 (27.8%), including 3-for-14 (21.4%) from deep in the two games.

Looking at those numbers and then backing Towns may seem counterintuitive, at least until realizing how well he has played away from Target Center this postseason. He's averaged 23.2 points in six road games (14.1 in seven home games), grabbed 9.5 rebounds (8.4), and shot 48.4% from deep (30.3%).

Unlike the regular season, home/road splits in the postseason do not have any opponent bias built in. Towns played well against the Suns and the Nuggets on the road, even though he struggled against them at home.

He has made at least three 3-pointers in three of those six road games, two of the others featuring just two threes. Some books set this Over/Under at 1.5 with extensive juice on the Over (-179 at Caesars), but realizing how badly the Wolves need Towns to get going should engender some confidence in the Over 2.5 at plus-money odds.

Naz Reid was Minnesota’s hot hand in Game 2, going 7-for-9 from deep and getting the understandable nod for the last shot at the buzzer, but he was still a 0 in plus/minus. Reid’s defense has struggled against this Dallas Mavericks scheme.

If Towns can find his scoring, he should see an uptick in minutes simply because his defense has been notably better than Reid’s in this series. Towns gives the Timberwolves a more complete player, no matter how well Reid has played this year.

To find his scoring against the Mavericks, Towns likely will resort to shooting. Dallas is cutting off access to drives to the rim. That's been a Mavericks priority, which has allowed shooters like Reid to be open.

Those shots will be open for Towns. His performance on the road so far this playoffs suggests he will finally hit them.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks same-game parlay (SGP)

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 threes

Naz Reid Under 11.5 points 

Under 208

+700 at BetRivers

Backing Towns but fading Reid is a correlated decision, even if the sportsbook may not see it as one. Reid’s defense has been too costly for Minnesota. That has been tolerable until now because his shooting has been an appropriate counterweight, and with Towns struggling, that shooting has been a needed counterweight.

If Towns finds his scoring, though, then Reid’s shooting is no longer as vital and his defensive lapses will not be as tolerated.

Any increase in Minnesota’s defense should lead to some faith in the Under. It has not been playing well in this series, but it has a full season of success to draw upon.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks odds

Timberwolves vs Mavericks live odds

Get the latest Timberwolves vs. Mavericks NBA playoff odds for Game 3.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks opening odds

• Spread: Minnesota +3.5 | Dallas -3.5
• Moneyline: Minnesota +125 | Dallas -150
• Over/Under: Over 208.5 | Under 208.5

Timberwolves vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

• After Dallas won Game 2, this spread opened with the Mavericks as 3.5-point favorites, a number that fell to -2.5 by Saturday evening and even to -2 at some books on Sunday.
  
  
• The total opened at 208.5 and fell to 207.5 by late Saturday, a move that fits in line with the spread moving toward the Timberwolves, given Minnesota’s last four wins have all featured the Under cashing, while their last five losses have all included an Over.
  
  
• Yet, the vast majority of bets and handle are on the Over at BetMGM. As of Sunday morning,  87% of bets had backed the Over, though that being only 61% of the handle wagered argues that bigger bets remain on the Under.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks trend

The Timberwolves have not covered a spread this postseason in a Game where they did not also win the Game outright. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks game info

Timberwolves vs Mavericks latest injuries

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