Spurs vs Nuggets Predictions, Picks & Odds - 4-2-2024

The San Antonio Spurs (18-57) may be the Western Conference's worst team, but they have given a lot of teams trouble of late in the NBA odds as they've won three of their last four, with two of their wins coming against the playoff-bound Suns and Knicks and their one loss being a four-point one to the Warriors.

On Tuesday night they will travel to take on the Denver Nuggets (52-23), who are neck-and-neck with the Thunder and Wolves in a race for the conference's top seed.

Can the Spurs spoil the Nuggets' pursuit of the No. 1 seed? Or will Nikola Jokic & Co. take care of business on Tuesday night? Continue reading for free NBA picks and predictions for the Spurs vs. Nuggets matchup on Tuesday, April 2.

Spurs vs Nuggets predictions

My best bet: Spurs +16 (-108 at DraftKings)

No 18-win team is good by any means, but the basketball that the San Antonio Spurs have been playing for the last month is hard to ignore. Since February 27, they've beaten the Thunder, Pacers, Warriors, Suns, and Knicks and managed to lose to the Kings, Rockets, Mavs, and Warriors all by six or fewer points.

Since February 29, they have rounded out as the league's 19th-best team according to net rating, including a 12th-ranked defensive rating. They've also excelled on the boards (11th in rebounding rate), and are playing sound team basketball on offense (second in assist percentage and 12th in true shooting percentage) while pushing the pace (fifth).

Obviously, that isn't to suggest that they are anywhere near the Denver Nuggets. It doesn't take limiting Denver's sample to just a stretch: they rank fifth in net rating on the entire year and are Top 10 on both sides of the ball.

But Denver is merely looking to win these final regular season games as they pursue the top seed, not necessarily blow teams out. Their enthusiasm in that regard seems to have waned as of late, as in their last eight games as a favorite they've managed to just cover three times.

Compare that to the 11 Games prior to that in which they were favored, a stretch during which they covered seven times. They haven't exactly been the best against the spread as double-digit favorites, having gone just 7-10 in that split.

Spurs vs Nuggets same-game parlay

When building out same-game parlays, it'd be wise to look at the point guard matchup discrepancies in tonight's game.

Jamal Murray is a game-time decision tonight and has not played since March 21. Reggie Jackson has started in his place, and likely would be in line for a large workload even if Murray were to return tonight.

Jackson has seen his turnover numbers inflate with the increased workload, averaging 1.8 turnovers per game since Murray has been out compared to the 1.1 turnovers he has averaged this season. Tre Jones has secured a steal in eight of his last 12 games, and has secured one in all but 16 of his 43 games this calendar year.

Elsewhere, the Nuggets (aka Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) have had a lot of success chasing off and closing out on shooting guards on the perimeter. Their 2.86 three-pointers allowed per game to the position are the third-fewest in the league this year, which could mean a low output from Malakhi Branham in that regard.

And with his line at 1.5 with near-even odds, that makes this leg even more interesting as Branham has managed to hit two or more 3s in just two of his last eleven games.

Learn how to bet a same-Game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Spurs vs Nuggets odds and trends

Spurs vs Nuggets live odds

Spurs vs Nuggets opening odds

• Spread: San Antonio +15.5 | Denver -15.5
• Moneyline: San Antonio +936 | Denver -1,400
• Over/Under: Over 222.5 | Under 222.5 

Spurs vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

• San Antonio is 39-36 against the spread, which is good for the 12th best cover rate this year despite their lowly 18 wins straight up. And they've not covered in four straight, and have covered in 14 of their last 20.
• The Nuggets have conversely been much worse against the spread relative to their pristine win-loss record, having gone 34-39-2 ATS. That mark is good for a 46.6% cover rate, the eighth-lowest in the league.
• Denver has gone a staggering 44-31 towards the Under this year, good for a 58.7% rate that is third-highest in the league this year.

Spurs vs Nuggets trend

The Nuggets are 7-10 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Nuggets.

Spurs vs Nuggets game info

Spurs vs Nuggets latest injuries

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