The San Diego Padres (2-2) welcome the San Francisco Giants (1-1) to Petco Park for the 3rd of a 4-game series Saturday. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
The Padres lost their season-opening Game 5-2 to the Los Angeles Dodgers but won the following 2, scoring at least 6 in both Games. In its 4th Game of the season, San Diego lost to the Giants 8-3. It has yet to hold a team to under 4 runs. The Padres finished 3rd in the National League West last season with an 82-80 record. They were 44-37 at home.
The Giants lost to the Padres 6-4 on Opening Day as a slight underdog then took down the Padres 8-3 Friday, closing +124 on the moneyline. The Giants have the league’s 10th-highest payroll, so expectations are high for them this season. San Fran finished last season 79-83 and was 34-47 on the road. They are 1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season and 2-0 O/U.
Giants at Padres projected starters
RHP Jordan Hicks vs. RHP Dylan Cease
Hicks (3-9, 3.29 ERA) made 65 appearances and 0 starts in 2023. He owned a 1.35 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 65 2/3 IP.
- 2023 road splits: 2-3, 0.87 ERA (31 IP, 3 ER — 2 HR), 9 BB, 42 K in 31 appearances.
- Hasn’t pitched against San Diego since April 7, 2019
- Spent last season split between the Cardinals and Blue Jays
Cease (7-9, 4.58 ERA) made 33 starts last season for the White Sox. He finished with a 1.42 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 177 IP.
- 2023 home splits: 3-7, 4.20 ERA (94 1/3 IP, 44 ER — 8 HR), 48 BB, 104 K in 17 starts
- White Sox were 16-17 in the 33 games Cease started last season
- 2023 vs. San Francisco: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER (1 HR), 5 BB, 1 H in a 7-3 home victory
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Giants at Padres odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Giants +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Padres -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-194) | Padres -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Giants at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Giants 3
Moneyline
BET PADRES (-130).
The Giants will likely play most of their Game from the bullpen with Hicks transitioning to the rotation. San Fran didn’t have a terrific set or relievers last season, finishing 14th in the MLB in reliever ERA.
San Diego was solid at home last season, ending 44-37. It was also 43-37 following a loss last season. The Padres should have the pitching edge and have tallied at least 6 runs in 2 of their last 3 games.
Take the home side here and back PADRES (-130).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no real value here. The Giants are too expensive to play as a run-line underdog while the Padres are too risky to take as a run-line favorite. Ultimately, the moneyline has the best team-specific value.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-112).
If there’s one thing both teams have done well this season, it is hit the Over. The Padres are averaging 8 runs per Game over their last 3 Games and are 3-1 O/U on the season.
The Giants are 2-0 O/U and have scored at least 4 per game while allowing 4.5 per game in their 2 performances this season. Neither team has an ace taking the mound.
With that in mind, expect the offenses to stay hot and take OVER 7.5 (-112).
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