The San Diego Padres (90-66) and LA Dodgers (93-63) meet Tuesday as they open up a 3-game NL West series. Start time in the Tuesday opener is slated for 10:10 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 7-3
San Diego is on the road after a 5-1 homestand. The Padres are 8-1 since Sept. 13. Since Sept. 1, they have gained a couple Games on Los Angeles in the NL West standings.
The Dodgers, who lead the NL West by 3 games — over the Padres with 6 games to go — are 6-2 with a plus-34 run differential over their last 8 games.
The Southern California foes have played just 2 games since mid-May, and the Friars have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Padres at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Michael King vs. RHP Landon Knack
King (12-9, 3.04 ERA) is making his 30th start and 31st appearance. He owns a 1.20 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 168 2/3 innings.
- Last outing: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-3 home loss in 10 innings vs. Houston Astros Sept. 17
- Road splits: 8-4, 2.80 ERA (90 IP, 28 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 15 starts and 1 relief outing
- Career vs. Dodgers: 1-0, 3.63 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 13 H, 8 BB, 23 K in 2 starts and 2 relief appearances
- 2024 vs. Dodgers: 1-0, 4.11 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 12 H, 8 BB, 20 K in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Owns a 2.06 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 9 ER) over his last 7 starts
Knack (3-4, 3.39 ERA) is making his 12th start and 14th appearance. The rookie has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 61 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 8-4 win at Miami Marlins Wednesday
- Home splits: 1-3, 3.00 ERA (30 IP, 10 ER), 0.87 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 6 starts
- Has never faced the Padres
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Padres at Dodgers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 3 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Dodgers -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+165) | Dodgers +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Padres at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Dodgers 5
Moneyline
San Diego has won 8 straight series openers. The Padres rank 5th and 6th, respectively in road scoring (5.11 runs per Game) and run prevention (3.88).
King has made 10 starts in the 2nd half; he’s allowed more-than-2 earned runs just once. Since 2022, the righty owns a 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in road starts.
For Knack, strikeout totals (17 in 13 IP) have not been supported by peripherals, and too many baseballs have been barreled up over recent starts. A wind-blowing-out contest in Chavez Ravine has plenty of risk against a Friars club hitting the way it is. San Diego owns a .789 OPS over its last 16 games.
BACK PADRES (+100).
Run line/Against the spread
This play brings more juice and a higher profit hurdle into the equation. AVOID.
Over/Under
The Over is 5-2 across the last 7 series meetings at Dodger Stadium.
Both starting pitchers are solid but overrated by their surface stats. The Padres bullpen fits into the same category when looking at its September numbers, and the LA bullpen has been off its collective game for more than a few weeks.
With an outward breeze in the forecast and 2 good hitting clubs in the batter’s box, BET OVER 8.5 (-105).
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