Reds vs Dodgers Prediction - MLB Picks 7/28/23

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

• The Reds have won each of their last six games as road underdogs following a road loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against the Dodgers following a loss.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last four games as road underdogs against NL West opponents.
• The Reds have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Dodgers Betting Preview       

Los Angeles moved to 58-43 after dropping two of three to Toronto. The Dodgers were outgunned by the Blue Jays in Game three, and they’ll look to wake up at the plate Friday. The Los Angeles offense is scoring 5.04 runs per Game, while batting .248, with a .330 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 4.50 ERA, with a 1.28 WHIP. Freddie Freeman has collected a hit in eight of the last nine Games, and he leads the Dodgers in BA (.328) and hits (132), with 21 HR and 71 RBI. Mookie Betts brings a six-Game hit streak into the series, and he leads the team in home runs (27), with 68 RBI. J.D. Martinez has produced a run in seven of the previous nine Games, and he leads LAD in RBI (75), with 24 homers. Max Muncy has homered in four of the last seven contests, and he’s up to 25 home runs and 67 RBI for the season.

Bobby Miller (6-1, 4.28 ERA, 53 Ks) will make the start for Los Angeles. The rookie righty continues to thrive, and he performed well in Arlington last week, striking out six in six innings to earn his sixth victory. Miller  managed to earn his second straight win, despite allowing four runs in 5.2 innings to Pittsburgh last time out. Miller has cooled off after a hot start to his MLB career, and he’s given up four runs or more in three of his last four outings.  

Los Angeles Dodgers Team Facts

• The Dodgers have won each of their last six home Games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Dodgers have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight Friday Games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Dodgers have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four Games as favourites.
• The Dodgers have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four Games as favourites.
• The Dodgers have trailed after 7 innings in three of their last four Games as favourites.

Corey’s Free Pick

This battle of rookies could spell trouble for the visitors. Bobby Miller is thriving in the Dodgers system, and pitching confidently with the run support behind him. Brandon Williamson looks improved in two starts post break, but this will be one of the toughest lineups he’s faced this season, and the Dodgers may find ways to capitalize on that. After being outplayed by Toronto at home, LAD won’t let that occur this weekend. The Over brings a bit more security than the run line here, so let’s roll with that for this NL matchup.