Rangers vs Lightning Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NHL

The Metro-leading New York Rangers head to Florida tonight to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are in the middle of a Wild-Card battle in the East and wrap up a five-game homestand as a slight -105 home dog. 

The Rangers are the best team in hockey since the All-Star break but with winning comes protecting leads and that means giving up shots. No team is allowing more 5-on-5 shots per game than the Blueshirts over the last 10 and the Bolts have a great shooting matchup tonight vs. a traveled team. But who is the best target?

I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for Rangers vs. Lightning for Thursday, March 14.   

Rangers vs Lightning odds

Rangers vs Lightning predictions

The New York Rangers are 13-3 since the All-Star break but a lot of that has been due to Igor Shesterkin going 9-1-1 with a 1.63 GAA and a  .951 save percentage over that stretch. They currently rank dead last in shots allowed/60 at 5-on-5 over the last 10 games and are coming off a massive divisional win, which was the second game of a back-to-back.

I’m not betting against the Rags tonight, but I will target the Tampa Bay Lightning in a great shooting matchup.

New York will be playing its fourth game in six nights and Tampa is looking to cap off its current five-game homestand with a winning record and has been off since Saturday. The Lightning have the better legs tonight and could win the possession game vs. a New York team that ranks 27th in shot-attempt differential over the last 10 games at 5-on-5, per Natural Stat Trick.

Brayden Point is 8-3 to the Over in his 2.5 shot total over his last 11 games and the first-line forward leads all Tampa skaters in SOG since Feb 22. Nikita Kucherov has seen his shot volume decrease of late and Point is picking up the slack. 

He’s averaging 3.1 shots per Game at home compared to 2.4 on the road and a lot of that has to do with getting better matchups with the last change. 

With some books posting -140 odds for his Over 2.5 shots, getting it at -130 is a deal. The Rangers have been great but with winning comes defending and New York playing with the lead would be great for Point’s chances of hitting this Over. 

My best bet: Brayden Point Over 2.5 shots (-130 at bet365)

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Rangers vs Lightning same-game parlay

I'm stacking a couple of SOG Overs. Point has been the highest-volume shooter of late while Victor Hedman is coming off a 10-SAT game and has a better than 50% hit rate over his last 12. When facing a hot goalie, getting shots on net is important. 

Both goalies are coming off shutouts and the New York offense has not been scoring a lot despite the wins. It's also up a half-goal from the current flat 6 total. New York can play with the lead and Tampa can pepper Shesterkin. That's the best outcome. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rangers vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis

This game opened as a pick ‘em but New York has taken some money. It’s easy to back the No.1 team since the All-Star break, however, some metrics are a little worrying as the team’s league-leading save percentage at 5-on-5 should regress, but Shesterkin is the caliber of goalie who can maintain it.

The Rangers have been bailed out by their goaltending as they rank 28th in expected goal differential (xGF%) over the last 10 games but I’m not betting against the former Vezina Trophy winner. 

Tampa hasn’t been much better either at 5-on-5 ranking just two spots ahead of New York in xGF%. The big difference is Andrei Vasilevskiy is 6-6 SU with a GAA north of 3.00 and SV% below .900 since the All-Star break. 

Shesterkin is coming off back-to-back shutouts but Vasilevskiy also blanked the Flyers in his last game. 

The schedule advantage lies with the home side who have been off since Saturday while this will be New York's third game in four nights. 

The Over 6 has taken a little money but nothing significant. I’m leaning on the Under. The New York offense managed just one goal vs. Carolina and hasn’t been an overpowering unit despite the wins. 

The best angle here is Tampa Bay shots with a team that has been winning but allowing a ton and is dealing with a tough schedule. 

Rangers vs Lightning betting trend to know

The New York Rangers have only hit the 1P Game Total Over in 42 of their last 88 games (-17.45 Units / -15% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs. Lightning.

Rangers vs Lightning game info

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