The Pittsburgh Pirates (72-83) and the Cincinnati Reds (76-80) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Pirates vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pirates lead 7-5
Regardless of what happens Sunday, the Pirates will have won the season series from the Reds, as the teams do not meet again. It gets even more difficult for Cincinnati, as it has to try to solve rookie RHP Paul Skenes.
The Pirates have struggled in this series, with the Reds outscoring them 15-4 in the 2 Games, with Cincinnati cashing as a slight favorite in each outing. The Over-Under has split in the 1st 2 Games of the series.
Pittsburgh has won just twice in the past 9 games, while the Under is on a 6-2 run across the past 8 outings.
Cincinnati has a winning record in September, going 12-7. The Over has connected 6 of the previous 8 contests.
RHP Hunter Greene (elbow) returns from the injured list to make his 1st start since Aug. 13, after being sidelined nearly 6 weeks due to an elbow injury.
Pirates at Reds projected starters
RHP Paul Skenes vs. RHP Hunter Greene
Skenes (10-3, 2.07 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 126 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-0 road setback vs. St. Louis Cardinals Monday
- 2024 road splits: 4-2, 1.49 ERA, 54 1/3 IP, 9 ER, 3 HR, 0.87 WHIP, .175 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 14 BB, 75 K in 9 starts
- Last 7 games: 4-2, 2.25 ERA, 40 IP, 10 ER, 13 BB, 51 K, 1.08 WHIP
- Career/2024 vs. Reds: 2-0, 0.75 ERA, 12 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 16 K, .195 OBA in 2 starts
Greene (9-4, 2.83 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 143 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H (1 solo HR), 1 BB, 8 K in 4-1 home victory vs. St. Louis Cardinals Aug. 13
- 2024 home splits: 5-3, 3.39 ERA, 77 IP, 29 ER, 8 HR, 1.10 WHIP, .210 OBA, 28 BB, 93 K in 13 starts
- Last 7 games: 4-0, 0.98 ERA, 46 IP, 5 ER, 12 BB, 53 K, 0.70 WHIP
- Career vs. Pirates: 0-3, 3.00 ERA, 33 IP, 11 ER, 2 HR, 15 BB, 47 K, 1.12 WHIP, 12.8 K/9 in 6 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Pirates at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:13 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Pirates -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Reds +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates -1.5 (+135) | Reds +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Pirates at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 3, Reds 2
Moneyline
The PIRATES (-120) are the play with Skenes on the hill, as they look to salvage at least 1 game from the season’s final meeting against the Reds (+100).
Go lightly, though, as the Bucs are just 7-7 in the past 14 starts by Skenes, as he just doesn’t get enough support. Pittsburgh has scored 3 or fewer runs in 8 of the past 10 Games, too, so it really hasn’t been supporting any of its pitchers.
Run line/Against the spread
The Reds +1.5 (-160) are a little too expensive, if you woud like a little insurance. Yes, the Pirates -1.5 (+135) have had trouble with the sticks, but Greene is coming back after a 5-week stint on the injured list.
PASS, and just focus on the moneyline play.
Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-110) is the best play on the board.
Skenes has kept scores down in his starts, with the Under cashing in each of the previous 3 outings for the All-Star rookie. The Under is 1-0-1 in his 2 outings against the Reds, too.
If Greene can pitch like he was prior to his injury, that would be amazing for Under bettors. He has a minuscule 0.98 ERA in his previous 7 outings.
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