MLB

Philadelphia Phillies vs NY Mets Prediction 10-5-24 MLB Picks

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1m ago

Oct 05, 2024 / 9681 Views

Evan Walker

NY Mets (91-74) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)
October 5, 2024 4:08 pm EDT
The Line: Philadelphia Phillies -190 / NY Mets +160; Over/Under: +7.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The NY Mets and Philadelphia Phillies meet Saturday in MLB Game 1 of the NLDS at Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Philadelphia Phillies vs NY Mets Prediction. This article will include a Philadelphia Phillies vs NY Mets Pick.

NY Mets Betting Preview

The NY Mets are coming off a wild card series win over the Brewers and are in the NLDS for the first time since 2015. The NY Mets have scored 15 runs in their last 3 Games and 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 8 Games. The NY Mets have won 4 straight Games when scoring 4 or more runs. Mark Vientos leads the NY Mets with 3 hits and 2 RBI, while Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo have combined for 6 hits and 3 RBI.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies won 95 Games and are in the playoffs for a third straight season. The Phillies will play for the first time since September 29 after beating the Cubs and Nationals. The Philadelphia Phillies have scored 10 runs in their last 3 Games and 4 or more runs in 4 of their last 6 Games. The Philadelphia Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 Games when scoring 4 or more runs. Bryce Harper leads the Philadelphia Phillies with 157 hits and 87 RBI, while Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos have combined for 309 hits and 183 RBI.

NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Pitching Pick Matchup

Kodai Senga gets the ball for the NY Mets, and he is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 9 strikeouts this season. Senga will make his postseason when he takes the mound. Senga is 1-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 15 strikeouts in his career against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he is 16-7 with a 2.57 ERA and 224 strikeouts this season. Wheeler is 4-3 with a 2.42 ERA and 68 strikeouts in his postseason career. Wheeler is 5-5 with a 3.56 ERA and 93 strikeouts in his career against the NY Mets.

Why the New York Mets will win

The Phillies have lost five of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
The Mets have won four of their last six playoff games as road underdogs.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against NL East opponents following a win.
The Mets have covered the run line in five of their last six playoff games as road underdogs.
The Mets have led after 5 innings in four of their last five playoff games as road underdogs.
The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last five Saturday games against the Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in each of his two previous playoff appearances against the Mets after not playing the previous day.
Bryce Harper has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against the Mets after not playing the previous day.
J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
Bryce Harper has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies’ last seven day playoff games.
Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one total base in each of the Phillies’ last nine playoff games.
Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances with the Phillies as favorites against the Mets.
J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
Zack Wheeler ranks T3rd in the league for total Strikeouts (224) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets’ last four games against the Phillies.
Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances in day playoff games.
Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets’ last 12 day games.
Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one total base in each of the Mets’ last nine day games against opponents that held a winning record.
Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 14 games against NL East opponents.
Harrison Bader has hit a home run in three of his last four road playoff appearances.

Matchup/League Facts

The Philadelphia Phillies are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
The Philadelphia Phillies rank T4th in the league for hits this season (1423).
The New York Mets rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.230).
The New York Mets rank 28th in the league for walks allowed this season (586).

Philadelphia Phillies vs NY Mets Prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies should be favored as they’re at home and rested, and Zack Wheeler is coming off a strong season and has postseason success. Kodai Senga has just 5.1 innings under his belt this season, and this will be his postseason debut. The Phillies should win this Game.

With all that said, the Mets have some magic to them and keep finding ways to win. We’ve also see countless wild card teams just carry over the momentum and make deep postseason runs. There’s no reason the Mets have even made it this far. Sometimes it’s just a teams’ year. Not saying this will result in a world series crown, but I’ll keep taking the plus money until the magic runs out.