The Philadelphia Phillies (28-13) and New York Mets (19-20) open a 4-Game series Monday. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Phillies won 7-6 last season (home teams went 11-2)
New York avoided the sweep by defeating the Atlanta Braves 4-3 on Sunday Night Baseball, thanks to a walkoff 2-run HR by CF Brandon Nimmo. All 3 games vs. the Braves at Citi Field went under the total, as the Mets bullpen has been solid, collectively sporting an NL-low 2.79 ERA.
Philadelphia lost for just the 2nd time in 11 games as the Marlins emerged as 7-6 winners in Miami Sunday. In contrast to the Mets, all 3 games between the Phillies and Marlins went over the total. Philadelphia’s offense has produced the 2nd-most runs (213) and RBIs (203), and it has the 2nd-highest OBP (.336) in the league this season.
Phillies at Mets projected starters
LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. LHP Sean Manaea
Sanchez (2-3, 3.22 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 36 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 10-1 victory over Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday
- Sports lowest barrel percentage (3.6%) among 57 starting pitchers in NL with at least 30 IP
Manaea (2-1, 3.31 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 35 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 4-3 victory over St. Louis Cardinals May 6
- Features 2nd-lowest home-run-to-fly-ball percentage (2.2%) — but 3rd-highest BB/9 — among qualified NL starters
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Phillies at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mets +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+142) | Mets +1.5 (-172)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)
Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Philadelphia 4, New York 3
Moneyline
BACK PHILLIES (-120).
Philadelphia boasts 4 players in the top 15 for OBP among qualified hitters vs. LHP (3B Alec Bohm, C J.T. Realmuto, DH Kyle Schwarber and 2B Bryson Stott). Phillies 1B Bryce Harper leads all MLB hitters in hard-hit percentage (45.5%) with Schwarber in 3rd (42.3%) and LF Brandon Marsh in 7th (40.2%).
I expect them to support their starter and bullpen enough to pull out the road win.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I would not fault anyone for laying the juice with the Mets +1.5 (-172) since they have positive momentum after Sunday night’s walkoff win. Mets 1B Pete Alonso is 6 for 16 with 6 RBIs over his last 4 games, so there is a decent chance the Polar Bear stays hot and keeps his team in it.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-106).
Both teams are dealing with injuries, and Baseball Savant ranks Citi Field as the most inferior ballpark in the NL when it comes to run production.
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