NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 10-9-24 MLB Picks

The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets meet Wednesday in MLB playoffs action from Citi Field. This will be Game 4 in a best-of-five postseason series. Here’s a New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Mets vs Phillies pick.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Phillies got a two-out walk-off single from Nick Castellanos (two RBI; two runs; homer; three hits) in their Game 2 victory on Sunday to even things up after the opener loss. On Tuesday the Phillies gave up nine hits in a 7-2 loss. Starter Aaron Nola finished with 5.0 innings and four earned runs.

As starting pitcher Wednesday the Phillies are going with Ranger Suarez. This year Suarez went 12-8 with a 3.46 ERA in 27 starts. Suarez is 3-1 with a 1.62 ERA in nine postseason games (seven starts) over his career.

New York Mets Betting Preview

Over on the Mets’ side, they were able to draw first blood in this series, bagging a 6-2 win on Saturday in the opener. New York wasn’t able to keep it going in Game 2 however, coughing up seven late runs in a 7-6 loss. In Game 3 the Mets got out to a 2-0 lead after four innings and never looked back. Sean Manaea was great in the start with 7.0 frames, one earned, three hits, two walks and six Ks.

In the starter role for Game 4 the Mets will send out Jose Quintana. In 2024 Quintana went 10-10 with a 3.75 ERA in 31 starts. Quintana is 0-1 with a 2.92 ERA in six career postseason Games (five starts).

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Mets’ last seven home games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Jose Quintana has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded a Double in each of his last three home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets’ last eight games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Pete Alonso has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Quintana has recorded a win in four of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one total base in each of the Mets’ last 17 games against NL East opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded an RBI in each of his last four home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 17 games against NL East opponents.
• Brandon Nimmo has scored at least one run in each of the Mets’ last five games against the Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one Single in eight of the Phillies’ last nine games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Nick Castellanos has hit at least one home run in three of the Phillies’ last five playoff games against NL East opponents.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against the Mets.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one total base in each of the Phillies’ last 10 games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 10 games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Trea Turner has scored at least one run in 10 of his last 12 appearances against the Mets after playing the previous day.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Phillies’ last five playoff games against NL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The New York Mets rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.230).
• The New York Mets rank 28th in the league for walks allowed this season (586).
• The Philadelphia Phillies are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
• The Philadelphia Phillies rank T4th in the league for hits this season (1423).

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’ll go with the Mets. Quintana has a good start under his belt already this postseason. On October 3, Quintana notched 6.0 innings with four hits, one walk and five strikeouts as New York would eventually beat the Brewers 4-2. As for Suarez, he finished off the regular season with two losses in three games, notching 11 earned runs in 12.0 innings across that trio.

On Tuesday New York notched five runs across their final three frames in a nice offensive barrage. The Mets have now scored three or more runs in all six postseason Games—and six or more in four of those. If New York can keep the bats going Wednesday, this series is over.