NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 10-8-24 MLB Picks

The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets meet Tuesday in MLB playoffs action from Citi Field. This will be the third installment in a best-of-five postseason series. Here’s a NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Mets vs Phillies pick.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Phillies had a 1-0 lead for much of Saturday’s Game 1 opener, but then coughed up five runs in the eighth on the way to a 6-2 defeat. In Game 2 on Sunday, Philly got a two-out, walk-off single from Nick Castellanos in the bottom of the ninth for a 7-6 victory. Christopher Sanchez lasted 5.0 innings with two earned runs as starter.

In the starter slot for Tuesday’s matchup the Phillies will go with Aaron Nola. This year Nola went 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA in 33 starts. Over nine career postseason starts Nola is 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA.

New York Mets Betting Preview

Over on the Mets’ side, they got a pretty nice pitching outing from five different arms in the opener, resulting in two earned runs on five hits and five walks in the victory. On Sunday the Mets were up 3-0 at one point and 4-3 at another but still ended up losing. Starter Luis Severino finished with 6.0 innings and three earned runs along the way.

It’ll be Sean Manaea in the starter slot for the Mets in Game 3. In the regular season Manaea went 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA in 32 starts. Manaea is 0-3 in his postseason career with a 10.66 ERA in four Games (three starts).

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last seven games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Mets’ last six home games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last four home games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four night games against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Mets as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• Sean Manaea has recorded a win in four of his last five home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets’ last six games against the Phillies.
• Brandon Nimmo has scored at least one run in each of his last six home appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Sean Manaea has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four home appearances.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in 15 of the Mets’ last 16 games against NL East opponents.
• Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one total base in each of the Mets’ last eight games against NL opponents.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 16 games against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Bryce Harper has recorded a Double in each of his last four appearances against the Mets after not playing the previous day.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in each of his three previous playoff appearances against the Mets after not playing the previous day.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Phillies’ last five games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in each of his three previous playoff appearances against NL East opponents.
• Trea Turner has scored at least one run in five of the Phillies’ last six night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last nine Tuesday appearances against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one Single in each of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites against the Mets.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last nine games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one total base in each of the Phillies’ last eight night playoff games.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 8th in the league in Home Runs (38) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The New York Mets rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.230).
• The New York Mets rank 28th in the league for walks allowed this season (586).
• The Philadelphia Phillies are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
• The Philadelphia Phillies rank T4th in the league for hits this season (1423).

NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’m going to stay with the Phillies. Nola should be able to put his team in a solid position here if all goes well. In his last three outings Nola is 2-0 with six earned runs in 18.0 total innings on 19 hits and three walks. As for Manaea, he gave up two earned in 5.0 innings on six hits versus the Brewers back on October 2 but didn’t factor into the loss as the Mets were up by a run when he left.

On Sunday Philadelphia really didn’t get going until the sixth inning, and needed a couple of three-run frames to power out the victory. The Phillies had 10 team hits, but also gave up 11 hits on the other side. New York will get a big advantage heading up to Citi Field for Game three, but if Nola can put together a good start—and if the bats keep moving—I think Philly can steal one Tuesday.