The NLDS between the LA Dodgers and San Diego Padres moves to Petco Park for Game 3 Tuesday tied 1-1. First pitch is set for 9:08 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Playoff series: Tied 1-1; Padres won regular-season series 8-5
After a 7-5 Game 1 win by the Dodgers as -135 home favorites to open the series Saturday, the Padres bounced back Sunday in Game 2, winning 10-2 behind starter Yu Darvish’s 7 innings of 1-run ball. San Diego, which cashed as a +136 underdog, hit 6 homers in the win, 2 by RF Fernando Tatis Jr., and 1 apiece from CF Jackson Merrill, SS Xander Bogaerts, DH David Peralta and C Kyle Higashioka.
Dodgers at Padres projected starters
RHP Walker Buehler vs. RHP Michael King
Buehler (1-6, 5.38 ERA) made 16 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.55 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 75 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 7-2 home win vs. Padres Sept. 26
- 2024 vs. Padres: 0-1, 4.32 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 10 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 3 K in 2 starts
- Career vs. Padres (regular season): 6-1, 1.80 ERA (75 IP, 15 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 in 12 starts
- Career postseason: 3-3, 2.94 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 in 15 starts
King (13-9, 2.95 ERA) made 30 starts and appeared in 31 games in the regular season. He had a 1.19 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 173 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 R, 5 H, 0 BB, 12 K in 4-0 home shutout of Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of Wild Card Series Oct. 1
- Has allowed no more than 2 earned runs over last 9 starts
- 2024 vs. Dodgers: 2-0, 3.10 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 15 H, 5 HR, 10 BB, 23 K in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Career vs. Dodgers: 2-0, 2.82 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 16 H, 5 HR, 10 BB, 26 K in 3 starts and 2 relief appearances
- Last start vs. Dodgers: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 4-2 road victory Sept. 24
- Career postseason: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (9 IP), 5 H, 0 BB, 13 K in 1 1 relief outing (2020 for Yankees vs. Rays) and 1 start (Oct. 1 vs. Braves)
Dodgers at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 4:57 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dodgers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Padres -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers +1.5 (-175) | Padres -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Dodgers at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Dodgers 2
Moneyline
Buehler has the postseason pedigree but has not been the same this season since coming back from an injury. Over his last 6 starts, he has alternated allowing 2 or fewer runs and 4 or more. In his last start, he allowed 1, so if that pattern continues, he will give up several runs this time.
King dominated in Game 1 of the Padres’ Wild Card Series and was solid in his starts against the Dodgers this season.
The pitching matchup favors the Padres (-150), but you get better odds on the spread.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Of the 15 games between the 2 teams in the regular season and postseason this year, 11 have been decided by more than 1 run. The Padres have 20 wins in King’s games, 14 by 2 or more runs.
Both games this series have been decided by 2 or more runs.
BET PADRES -1.5 (+145).
Over/Under
The last 3 head-to-head meetings have had more than 7 runs, but 7 of the 15 this season have not surpassed 7.
King’s last 5 regular-season starts did not reach 8 total runs.
BET UNDER 7.5 (+100).
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