New Hampshire Democratic Party chair says Biden likely not on state primary ballot, amidst conflict between state party and DNC

ST. LOUIS, Missouri -- Over a year of contention about presidential nominating dates and rules in two of the nation's first states to cast ballots in 2024 – New Hampshire and Iowa – came to a head on Friday.

New Hampshire Democrats conceded that Democratic incumbent President Joe Biden is unlikely to be on the ballot in the Granite State's Democratic primary, even as Iowa Democrats announced a change to their proposed caucus process that allows them to not conflict with New Hampshire.

The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws committee closed out its fall meeting in St. Louis on Friday by voting that another version of New Hampshire's Democratic delegate selection plan was non-compliant with their new White House-backed calendar– a move that likely precedes Biden not filing to be on their state's ballot.

Approved in February, the DNC's 2024 early nominating schedule begins in South Carolina -- the state that revived President Joe Biden's campaign in 2020 -- on Feb. 3. Nevada and New Hampshire then hold their primaries on Feb. 6, followed by Georgia on Feb. 13 and Michigan on Feb. 27.

But the calendar fully removes Iowa from its decades-long perch at the top of the early nominating lineup and moves New Hampshire to vote concurrently with Nevada as the second primary state in the nation– changes that have triggered arduous negotiations between the state and national parties in both places.

In a copy of New Hampshire's delegate plan reviewed by ABC News, the state's Democrats maintained that their pledged delegates and alternates would be allocated proportionally to presidential preferences based on a primary — of which the date is not yet set.

The state's district-level delegates would then be selected at a pre-primary caucus that would occur at least 17 days before the not-yet-announced primary.

Despite urging from the DNC, it is very unlikely New Hampshire Democrats will push Secretary of State David Scanlan to move the state-run primary in accordance with the national party's schedule.

In a presentation of the plan before the RBC vote, New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Ray Buckley seemed to anticipate that their disobedience with the DNC's calendar would probably lead to Biden's absence on their ballot.

"We believe the President's name will not be on the ballot," Buckley said.

The DNC has not confirmed that Biden will not file for candidacy in New Hampshire, though a number of DNC members have also suggested the president's absence on the Democratic ballot in the Granite state is likely.

The President has not scheduled with the New Hampshire Secretary of State's office a date to file. New Hampshire's filing period is between Wednesday, Oct. 11 and Friday, Oct. 27.

Buckley, who has said he is at the "whim" Scanlon, noted that party leaders would attempt to organize write-in efforts if Biden was not on the ballot.

Some New Hampshire voters have voiced support for their state's decision not to move back their primary, even if it means Biden would not be a choice for them on the ballot.

"I think it's tragic that the current administration is not willing to participate in a process that has been in place for a very long time. It's even tougher to understand when you factor in that Joe Biden didn't win New Hampshire the last time around," said Stephen Ivanoksi, a registered independent from Newington, New Hampshire.

Ivanoksi used to lean toward the Democrat Party, but not with the "elitism" it is now.

"This was a predictable consequence of the DNC's insistence on reshaping the primary calendar. The president now finds himself unable to file in the first-in-the-nation primary or get an early start on his campaign in a critical swing stat lest he run afoul of DNC sanctions. This is just a huge unforced and unnecessary error," Chris Galdieri, a political science professor at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, told ABC News.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see an effort to get New Hampshire Democrats to write in Biden's name in the primary. But that's going to eat up resources and time that would be better served by normal campaign activity and organization."

New Hampshire has held the first-in-the-nation primary for the last 100 years since 1920 and the last sitting president to not file in New Hampshire was in 1968 with Lyndon B. Johnson. He believed that competition would be bad for his re-election and later decided to not run.

Meanwhile, Iowa Democrats announced Friday that they will mail out presidential preference cards for the 2024 presidential caucuses on Jan. 12, 2024, but will release those results on Super Tuesday, when over a dozen other states also cast their votes in the Democratic primary.

The DNC's Rules Committee unanimously voted that the plan was in conditional compliance with their rules in a decision on Friday.

The move is a concerted compromise with the DNC, which will reevaluate their early nominating calendar for the 2028 cycle, RBC Chair Minyon Moore said on Friday.

Scott Brennan, Iowa's DNC member, said Iowa's move is not a "surrender" of the state's coveted spot in the front of the nominating line, but a capitulation that "assures" they get a better placement in upcoming cycles.

"Our nominee is the President. This is about positioning ourselves for 2028. We've been assured we will get a fair shot in 2028 and if we don't, all bets are off," Brennan told ABC News.

Iowa Democratic Chairwoman Rita Hart said in a press conference on Friday morning that the decision came after "lengthy and vigorous discussions with the DNC."

Iowa Democrats will still hold in-person caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024 – the same day that Republicans caucus – but it will be mostly a party-building exercise, as presidential preferences will not count.

Iowa Democrats's new plan, while celebrated by many, may not meet their own Republican Legislature's standards for the nomination process.

State law now requires that the Hawkeye State hold first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses for both parties, and Iowa Democrats' plan decides presidential preferences at the tail end of the pre-window.

Iowa Republican Party Chair Jeff Kaufmann noted that both his state party and the Republican National Committee will "steadfastly defend" Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus status.

"While there have been different tactics deployed this year – including the complicity and incompetence of the Iowa Democratic Party – the Republican Party of Iowa and the Republican National Committee will continue to steadfastly defend our half-century-old carveout system, to ensure the triumph of grassroots democracy that ultimately strengthens our presidential nominating process," Kauffman wrote in a statement.

The earlier plans by the Iowa Democratic Party to have a mail-in caucus process had sparked concern from a state hundreds of miles northeast.

New Hampshire officials had previously said that changes in Iowa caucus processes that make it closer to a primary would spark a reaction because of its state law requiring New Hampshire to have first-in-the-nation primaries.

Some New Hampshire elected officials responded positively Friday to the news that Iowa Democrats will release mail-in caucus results on Super Tuesday, but the Granite State is still not setting a presidential primary date yet.

"Iowa Democrats' acknowledgment that they will not compete with the New Hampshire Primary is a win for the democratic process, our citizens, and the candidates who rely on New Hampshire to give everyone a level playing field," New Hampshire's Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican, wrote in a statement.

Rules and Bylaws member Mo Elleithee commended Iowa on Friday for its ability earlier in the day to present an "elegant solution" that met the needs of its own state and the national party. He seemingly decried New Hampshire for its failure to do the same.

"Today ... we saw Iowa would have been telling us time and time again that their hands were tied, finding a relatively elegant solution to a difficult situation," Elleithee said.

"I know that the New Hampshire Democratic Party is an incredibly strong Democratic Party… we can come up with an equally elegant solution in the next 30 days. So that New Hampshire can do what you asked us to do, which brings in your longstanding tradition of being the second in the nation contest. And doing it in a way that just elevates a few others."