NBA MVP Odds, Predictions and Best Bets for the 2024-25 season - Nikola Jokic looks to defend his throne | Pickswise

The 2024-25 NBA regular season is almost upon us meaning it is time to once again evaluate the top talent in the league and see who has the best shot of claiming the MVP trophy. Last season Nikola Jokic won the trophy for the 3rd time in his career. To do so for the fourth time will be no easy task, with a number of contenders vying to knock him off his saddle. Take a look at my breakdown of the front runners below.

Luka Doncic (+340)

The Mavericks are now designed to work perfectly for Luka Doncic. He has Kyrie Irving with him who has plenty of experiences thriving next to a ball dominant star. Daniel Gafford, Derek Lively are athletic screen setters who can but pressure on the rim and now Klay Thompson and P.J. Washington should help provide elite floor spacing. It feels set up for the Mavericks to make a leap in the regular season on the back off their impressive NBA Finals run last season. If they can secure a top 2 or 3 seed in the West, and Doncic sees an uptick in numbers, it’s hard to find someone more worthy. He is coming into this season after his best scoring year of his career, where he shot above 38% from deep for the first time and averaged 33.9 points per Game. With the pieces around him, he should be able to get close to averaging a 30-point triple double this season. Those would be hard numbers to argue against.

Nikola Jokic (+350)

There was already some voter fatigue when it came to Jokic last season. It seemed that everyone wanted to find someone new to give the trophy to, but the Serbians advanced statistics were just too compelling. He led the league in Player Impact Estimate among those who played at least 40 games. His other stats were not too bad either, with the reigning MVP coming just an assist per game shy of averaging a triple-double. There is nothing to suggest a drop off from him this coming season. However, only LeBron James and Bill Russell have ever won 4 MVP trophy’s in a 5 year span. With several other strong contenders in the mix, I feel like the NBA community will look to award the title to a new name this coming year.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+500)

Oklahoma City Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made a strong push last season for the MVP title, but ultimately came up short. Undoubtedly, he will be in the mix once more this time around. The Thunder will have another year of experience under their belts, which should help them compile a more dominant record. For SGA to have a real shot at MVP, I feel like he needs to lead the league in scoring. Last year he was behind Doncic, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo in that category. However, what separates the Thunder from the other elite teams is that they don’t have a clear second offensive star. No one else last season averaged more than 20 points per game on their roster. It helps attribute more of the credit for the teams success to SGA and should  allow him to make another jump in scoring here. Do not be surprised to see him hover around 34-points per game this season. He does not stuff the stat sheet like Doncic or Jokic, but he cannot be discredited.

Joel Embiid (+600)

The last man to dethrone Nikola Jokic of the MVP title is Joel Embiid. He is without a doubt one of the most dominant centers we have seen over the last decade, but I think odds are against him becoming a 2-time MVP. The 76ers have strengthened, bringing in Paul George. With Tyrese Maxey also making a leap last year, offensive duties will be shared more than ever in Philadelphia. Injuries are another clear issue. Embiid has come out and said that he may never play both Games of a back-to-back ever again. Even if he is Healthy for all other Games, that smaller sample size could work against him here. He only played 39 Games last season and there is already talk of his knees in the preseason, with the star being held out of Games. Embiid has his MVP trophy already, his sights will be set on other goals this coming year.

Long shot – Victor Wembanyama (+2000)

The reigning rookie of the year feels destined to win the MVP trophy, the only question is when. In his first season he averaged 21 points and 10 rebounds while also chipping in 3.6 blocks per game and 1.2 steals. Those defensive stats are what make him a clear favorite for Defensive Player of the Year and could well separate him from the crowd in the MVP race. The likes of Doncic and Jokic are far from being considered elite defenders. What could really hold back the French sophomore however, is his teams record. Unless he puts together a historically unique year, like Russell Westbrook did when he first averaged a triple-double for a whole season, you are unlikely to win MVP by barely making the playoffs. But if this Spurs team can shock a few people and make a similar leap like the Thunder did last season, with Chris Paul coming in to steady the ship, Wembanyama odds certainly start to look tempting.

Best bet: Luka Doncic

There are other names that will certainly be in the mix, with the likes of Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson and Giannis Antetokounmpo worth consideration. But the way that Doncic and Jokic stuff the stat sheet offensively, I think puts them a level ahead of the others. With the changes the Mavericks have made to their roster, and the momentum of their Finals run, I expect them to finish above the Nuggets in the regular season. With all other factors being close, I think this would be enough to tip things in the Slovenians favor.