The Boston Red Sox (76-78) welcome the Minnesota Twins (81-73) to Fenway Park Saturday for the 2nd of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 3-1
The Twins beat the Red Sox to open the series 4-2 Friday.
They snapped a 2-game losing streak with the victory. Minnesota, which has fallen to 3rd in the AL Central, dropped 3 of 4 to the Cleveland Guardians in the series prior and 2 of 3 to the Cincinnati Reds before that. It is 39-40 on the road and 71-83 against the spread (ATS).
The Red Sox lost Friday and are now on a 2-game losing streak. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and their bats have really struggled. Boston has scored a total of 9 runs in its last 5 games. It is 35-41 at home this season and 71-83 ATS.
Twins at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Kutter Crawford
Lopez (15-8, 3.84 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 175 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-3 road loss to the Cleveland Guardians Monday
- 2024 away stats: 8-4, 4.02 ERA (94 IP, 42 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 16 starts
- Career vs. Red Sox: 1-1, 3.86 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 13.1 K/9 in 2 starts
Crawford (8-15, 4.19 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 171 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-2 road loss to the New York Yankees Sunday
- 2024 home stats: 4-8, 4.08 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 16 starts
- Career vs. Twins: 1-1, 6.55 ERA (11 IP, 8 ER), 1.91 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 3 appearances (2 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Twins at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Red Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+120) | Red Sox +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Twins at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 5, Red Sox 2
Moneyline
BET TWINS (-145).
The Twins have performed well with Lopez on the mound recently. They are 4-1 in his last 5 starts. Minnesota is almost at .500 on the road while Boston has been worst at home than in away games.
The Red Sox struggled offensively in the last week, and against a strong starter like Lopez, that should be expected to continue. Boston has been outscored 9-20 in its last 5 games.
Expect those trends to continue and take TWINS (-145).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no great value here. The Twins as a run-line favorite are too risky to play, and the Red Sox as a run-line underdog are far too expensive. Avoid this play.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8 (-120).
The Red Sox have gone Under in 3 straight games and in 5 of their last 6. Boston has allowed just 7 runs over its last 3 games while scoring 4 in that span.
The Twins have a similar recent run and are 1-3 O/U in their last 4 Games. They are 1-2-2 O/U in Lopez’s last 5 starts. Minnesota has scored just 10 runs and allowed 10 through its last 3.
Take UNDER 8 (-120).
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