The Minnesota Twins (81-76) welcome the Miami Marlins (58-99) to Target Field Wednesday for the 2nd of the 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Marlins vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 1-0
The Marlins beat the Twins to open the series 4-1 Tuesday, closing as +224 moneyline underdogs.
Miami has lost 2 of its last 3 and 4 of its last 6, spending its last 2 series at home and dropping 2 of 3 to both the Atlanta Braves and LA Dodgers. The Marlins are 4-10 over its last 14 Games. The Marlins are 28-48 on the road this season and 74-83 against the spread (ATS).
The Twins have lost 3 in a row, getting outscored 21-5 in those Games. They are 2 Games out of the final AL Wild Card spot and sit 4th in the AL Central despite its plus-.500 record. It has been an unfortunate showing in the homestretch as they are 3-8 over their last 11Games. Minnesota is 42-34 at home, though, but it is an ugly 71-86 ATS — 4th worst in the majors — on the season.
Marlins at Twins projected starters
RHP Edward Cabrera vs. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
Cabrera (4-8, 5.12 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 91 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 3 K in 20-4 home loss to LA Dodgers Thursday
- 2024 away stats: 3-5, 5.71 ERA (41 IP, 26 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 in 9 starts
- First time facing Twins in his career
Woods Richardson (5-5, 4.00 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 132 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 3-2 loss in 10 innings at Cleveland Guardians Thursday
- 2024 home stats: 1-2, 3.90 ERA (62 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 12 starts
- First time facing Marlins in his career
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Marlins at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 2:21 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Twins -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Marlins +1.5 (-140) | Twins -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Marlins at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Marlins 3
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no reason to play the moneyline here.
Minnesota (-190) is far too great of a favorite to consider at almost twice your money for a unit of return. Similarly, the Miami (+155) has struggled on the road this season and isn’t worth the risk.
Run line/Against the spread
BET MARLINS +1.5 (-140).
The Twins have had 3 of their last 8 Games end within 1 run, so they’ve played close Games as of late. Minnesota is just 2-6 in those Games with its wins coming by just 2 and 3 runs — and the 2-run victory was in 10 innings.
Despite the 20-4 rout by the Dodgers Thursday, the Marlins have actually played well over the last week. They are 3-4 straight up and have had 2 of their last 5 losses by 1 run.
With that in mind, TAKE MARLINS +1.5 (-140).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).
The Marlins have gone Under in 3 of their last 4 Games with an 0-3-1 O/U mark. They have scored 10 runs in their last 3 Games and have allowed a total of 15 runs in their last 4.
Similarly, the Twins have gone Under in 3 of their last 5. Minnesota has struggled offensively, scoring just 5 runs in its last 3 games. It hasn’t scored more than 4 runs since 9 games ago.
TAKE UNDER 8.5 (-115).
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