Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Player Prop Picks 11-26-24 Picks

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Player Prop Picks 11-26-24

The Miami Heat will face the Milwaukee Bucks on November 26, 2024, in a matchup featuring two of the more talented teams in the Eastern Conference. 

Miami, led by Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, relies on its strong defense and team chemistry but struggles with scoring consistently outside of its stars. Milwaukee, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, boasts a potent offense but has consistent issues on defense. The key battles will include Adebayo trying to contain Giannis and the Heat’s role players like Tyler Herro stepping up to counter Lillard’s scoring. While the Heat’s defense gives them a fighting chance, the Bucks’ offensive firepower will give them a run for their money. 

Damian Lillard Over 7.5 Assists

Damian Lillard has been an efficient playmaker for the Milwaukee Bucks this season, averaging 7.4 assists per Game. This represents a solid contribution to the team’s offense, reflecting his role as both a scorer and distributor. His assist totals have been consistent across Games, often hitting double digits, such as when he recorded 13 assists against the Indiana Pacers on November 22, 2024. His ability to facilitate scoring opportunities complements his scoring prowess, making him a dual-threat player on the court.

This Heat defense is strong on the perimeter and I expect Lillard to have struggles scoring the ball which will put him in more of a facilitator role. The Heat allow 26.2 assists per game to opposing teams which is above the league average. Over Lillard’s last 4 games, we’ve seen him get double-digit assists in 3 of them. 

Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 Rebounds

Bam Adebayo has maintained his reputation as a versatile big man with consistent rebounding. He has averaged 9.3 rebounds per Game while playing 35.2 minutes per contest. This includes 6.3 defensive rebounds and 3.0 offensive rebounds per Game, showcasing his ability to clean the glass on both ends of the court. His total rebound percentage stands at a solid 14.4%, with particularly strong performances on the offensive boards, contributing a 9.3% offensive rebound rate.

I like Bam Adebayo to have another big night on the board on Tuesday. He’ll be matched up with Brook Lopez who just doesn’t have the presence in the paint like he used to averaging only 5.4 rebounds per Game. The Bucks as a team are giving up an average of 53.3 rebounds per Game to opposing teams which is about the league average. Bam Adebayo is fully capable of getting 10+ rebounds and this is a spot he should capitalize on. 

Jimmy Butler Over 18.5 Points

Jimmy Butler has been a key contributor for the Miami Heat, averaging 19.2 points per Game over 10 Games while playing 31.6 minutes per contest. His scoring efficiency stands out, with a 52.1% field goal percentage and a true shooting percentage of 61.4%. Butler has been particularly effective at drawing fouls, averaging 6.5 made free throws on 8.5 attempts per Game, converting at a 76.5% rate. From beyond the arc, he has been limited, shooting just 21.4% on a low volume of 1.4 attempts per Game.

Since returning from injury Jimmy Butler has been going off. We’ve seen him have 30 points against the Philadelphia Sixers and a 33-point performance against the Mavericks in his last Game. This Bucks defense is fraudulent and we’ve seen guys have big Games against this defense. I don’t see a world where Jimmy Butler doesn’t get at least 20 points.