Mavericks vs Timberwolves Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA

The Dallas Mavericks are effectively ducking the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, certainly not the actual intent but also the takeaway when a team sits its two stars despite the MVP candidate among them not missing any games the last two weeks.

Without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, not to mention Dereck Lively II and most likely Dante Exum and Derrick Jones Jr., the Mavericks should be limited tonight in all regards, hence their huge price in the NBA odds.

The Timberwolves are riding high after their close win against Oklahoma City on Monday and that may be enough to keep them motivated early tonight against Dallas’s second unit. But trusting Minnesota all game long is a step too far in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview Mavericks vs. Timberwolves on Wednesday, January 31.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves odds

Mavericks vs Timberwolves predictions

No NBA fan base is more scarred by losses to the dredges of the league than Minnesota Timberwolves’ fans. There was a three-week stretch last January when Minnesota lost to the Pistons twice, the Jazz once, and the Rockets once. If the Wolves had just beaten Detroit in those two games — those Pistons were not as bad as this year’s, but they still went 17-65 — they would have been out of the play-in. If they won all four of those games, they would have been the No. 4 seed in the West.

Minnesota rekindled those fears last Sunday by losing at San Antonio. Oh, and that came within a week of falling to the Hornets despite Karl-Anthony Towns scoring 62 points.

It is not just the fans, though. The Timberwolves know of this problem. They acknowledged it all preseason and seemed to have solved the worry through the first half of the season.

The Dallas Mavericks are by no means a team in the dredges of the league, but tonight’s version of Dallas could be considered as such. At the absolute least, Minnesota will be at risk of playing down to that level. But it should not to start the game. The outright and public accountability for that bad habit should protect the Timberwolves out of the gates tonight. And against this Mavericks roster, that may be enough.

Look at who Dallas has available. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Josh Green will be the extent of known and trusted backcourt players. Neither of them will be particularly adept at initiating the offense. Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell will take the lead in the paint, and while both are quality players, they will pale in comparison to Towns, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid. Grant Williams will do as he always does and float somewhere between the position groups, not really an offensive threat.

Maybe that all sounds too harsh. Jaden Hardy has averaged 11.2 points in his five starts this season. A bigger role may behoove him in time. That includes 25 points across two starts in late December when both Luka and Kyrie were sidelined.

One of those came in a 118-110 loss at Minnesota. Yes, Timberwolves fans are seeing the Mavericks twice this season without seeing either Luka or Kyrie once. The NBA’s 82-Game schedule continues to work to the detriment of its fans.

Minnesota got out to a 61-56 halftime lead on Dec. 28, notable tonight because it can be the exact evidence Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch needs to emphasize some want-to early. And yet, three-fifths of that starting lineup — Jones Jr., Lively II and Exum — is unlikely to play tonight.

Seth Curry’s playing time has diminished to the point of DNP-CD usually being more likely to show up by his name than double-digit minutes are, but tonight he could play 20 minutes. The Mavs simply have no other options.

Going against the best defense in the NBA with no prototypical point guard will be a recipe for disaster for Dallas for as long as Minnesota stays engaged. The combination of December’s defensive lapse against the short-handed Mavericks and last week’s deflating losses should keep the Timberwolves focused early tonight.

Leaning into that only through halftime protects against human nature striking late.

My best bet: Mavericks first-half team total Under 52.5 (-110 at FanDuel) 30% boost available

Mavericks vs Timberwolves same-game parlay

To be completely honest, this type of counter-intuitive same-game parlay should be used more often. A pregame second-half team total is not always widely available, but using it with an Over makes complete sense here in opposition to that first-half team total Under.

Consider some of the Mavs who may see extended time tonight: Curry, Hardy, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper, in particular. Curry has a non-guaranteed $4 million year remaining on his contract while Hardy and Prosper are trying to find their ways firmly into the rotation.

In January, Curry has played only 10.7 minutes per game in 10 minutes. Hardy has appeared in all 14 games, but his 17.5 minutes per game leaves him on the outside of Jason Kidd’s true rotation. And Prosper, despite being a fan favorite, has played in just four games.

If they get chances to run in the second half, they will take them. They need to impress. And by then, Minnesota may have eased up for the night.

If the Wolves have eased up, it is likely because they have scored plenty themselves. Given how short-handed Dallas will be, it is hard to envision a viable double-team strategy against Towns. Without that, there may be little stopping him from scoring as he wishes.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis

Most sportsbooks held off on releasing a line for this game until after Dallas had released its availability report on Tuesday night. At least one did not, with DraftKings opening the Timberwolves as 3.5-point favorites.

Within an hour of the release of that status update, the number was -13.5, settling at -13 early on Wednesday.

Minnesota may be playing better against the worst teams in the league this season, but that has only applied to wins and losses. It is 4-6 against the spread as a double-digit favorite this year.

DraftKings had also posted a total before Luka, Kyrie & Co. were ruled out, opening at 228.5 before plummeting to 224.5 following that news. By Wednesday morning, it was down to 219.5, the valley before rebounding to 221 or 221.5, depending on your sportsbook.

It may be hard to gauge a total in terms of this Mavericks roster, but seven of the Timberwolves’ 10 games this season as double-digit favorites have gone to the Under, a distinct trend compared to Minnesota’s 19-18 Over/Under record in its other games.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

Minnesota’s last four Games have all hit the Under. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves game info

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