Manchester United announce Joshua Zirkzee transfer: Why former Bologna forward could struggle at Old Trafford

Manchester United have completed the signing of Dutch international striker Joshua Zirkzee from Bologna in a deal worth $46.4 million.

The Red Devils paid a slight premium over the $43.7 million (€40 million) release clause in the forward's contract with the Serie A side, allowing them to stretch the payment over three years. CBS Sports had reported on Monday that United were looking to structure the deal differently to avoid having to pay Bologna in one go. Zirkzee has signed a contract until 2029 with the option for a further 12 months.

"Having had discussions with the manager and the leaders of the club I know how exciting the future is going to be here and I cannot wait to play my part in achieving success for Manchester United," said Zirkzee. "I am a player who has always dedicated everything to winning; I'm ready for this next challenge, to go to another level in my career and win more trophies.

"It is a privilege to join such an iconic club. I have to take a short break now after being with the national team, but I'll be coming back ready to make an impact straight away."

Zirkzee scored 11 goals and provided five assists in 34 Serie A Games last season, leading Bologna to Champions League qualification and earning himself the award for the league's best young player. Formerly of Bayern Munich, the 23-year-old was also linked with AC Milan before United swept in to secure Zirkzee's services.

Dan Ashworth, Manchester United sporting director, said: "Securing a forward to enhance our already strong group of attacking players was a key aim for this summer. We are delighted that we've managed to sign a player of Joshua's calibre this early in the transfer window.

"Joshua is an outstanding talent who is ready to make an impact for Manchester United. His ability and desire to grow into a world-class player means that he will be a great addition to the squad that we are building for the exciting season ahead and beyond. Having already achieved a significant amount in his career, we will provide Joshua with the perfect platform to reach the next level under the guidance and support of Erik ten Hag and the coaching staff. We look forward to seeing Joshua thrive at Old Trafford over the coming years."

Following him could be several new center backs. According to CBS Sports sources, Bayern Munich would be willing to consider offers for Matthijs de Ligt, who made only 16 starts in the Bundesliga last season as he struggled with injuries and lost his place in the starting XI to Eric Dier. It has been suggested that a fee in excess of $50 million would be considered by the Bavarians. United have also been tracking Everton's Jarrad Branthwaite, for whom they have had two bids rejected, and Lille youngster Lenny Yoro.

De Ligt broke into the Ajax side as a teenager under United boss Erik ten Hag, who named him the youngest captain in Ajax's History in March 2018. Now 24, the Dutch international has spent time at both Juventus and Bayern Munich, winning two league titles.

Are these the right moves for United?

On the face of it De Ligt seems a natural fit for United, who need a veteran defender to plug the gap left after Raphael Varane's departure on a free transfer. He knows Ten Hag, has nearly 50 games of Champions League football to his name, and is experienced in the sort of high defensive line that has been such a struggle to implement at Old Trafford. Given the prices that defenders such as Josko Gvardiol and Harry Maguire have gone for in the past five years, a $50 million deal seems a shrewd move for United.

Beyond even that, De Ligt would fit on the sort of timeline Manchester United ought to be looking back. That they brought Ten Hag back as manager after much umming and aaahing post-FA Cup Final doesn't obscure the reality that they are likely many years from contending for Premier League titles. A 24 year old central defender, veteran of numerous elite clubs, whose prime is theoretically ahead of him, should be able to last the journey.

There are, however, some extremely significant questions to be addressed with regards to De Ligt. Are United falling into the trap of focusing recruitment on players their manager knows, one that left them seriously bruised in cases such as Antony and Sofyan Amrabat? How did a one time Golden Boy come to sit fourth on Bayern's defensive depth chart behind Min-Jae Kim, Dayot Upamecano and Eric Dier? Why is another top tier European club prepared to part ways with a young center back only two years after he left Juventus?

This particular question should haunt United, who for a decade have spent vast sums cleaning up the finances of their European contemporaries for little discernible sporting benefit. Real Madrid, Juventus and Chelsea are among the most notable beneficiaries of Old Trafford wealth, moving out post-prime talent to a club that has shown no ability to manage decline, let alone restore damaged treasures. So bad has it got with the signings of Casemiro and Cristiano Ronaldo, that the default operating position of Sir Jim Ratcliffe, Dan Ashworth and Jason Wilcox really ought to be "are we getting fleeced here?"

There are not quite as many issues to address around Zirkzee. Ultimately it is hard to comprehend why, at a time when finances must be carefully distributed, United are willing to spend such significant sums on a striker who didn't score many goals or take many shots last season. A mere 0.24 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 in Serie A last season is deeply unremarkable. Bologna might not have been the most front-footed or shot-heavy of teams, even so their center forward ought to be getting more than 2.79 shots per 90.

Focus the view into the most valuable parts of the pitch and Zirkzee's profile becomes all the more underwhelming. The 29th most non-penalty shots in the area last season does not scream $40 million-plus addition for Manchester United. He might average more than Rasmus Hojlund, but 2023's bright young thing, recruited from Serie A at considerable expense despite the lingering doubts over him, does get very good shots when he takes them. Zirkzee does not.

The picture doesn't change all that much the further you go back in Zirkzee's career. A return of 15 goals in the Belgian top flight isn't to be sniffed at, but you would expect a striking target for a top English club (perhaps even a midtable one) to be obliterating that league, not putting up half an npxG per 90.

Zirkzee might contend he offers more than just shots. There is truth to that. He creates more for his team mates than most No.9s and at 6' 3" he is as effective at receiving progressive passes as he is at playing them. The Dutch international is strong with both feet, dribbles the ball well and is not afraid to pass up a shot of his own if a team mate is better placed. Maybe that goes some way to explaining why he doesn't take as many shots as he might.

Then again, United need shots and goals. For all the focus their porous defense got last season, they were only the league's ninth highest scorers, their 550 efforts on goal over 100 fewer than Arsenal and Manchester City. Better application of systems goes some way to bridging that gap, but so does elite talent. Zirkzee, coming from a high functioning, if cautious, system under Thiago Motta, does not obviously get those efforts up. 

Given the number of additions that United will require over the years to come -- are they really prepared to gamble on a Casemiro-Kobbie Mainoo double pivot next season -- signing Zirkzee could well lock them in to him and Hojlund as the strike options for years to come. In such circumstances you would need to feel confident that the new signing could grow into a key driver of United's journey back up the table. On the basis of his data, it is hard to see how Ten Hag and those around him have reached that conclusion.