Lakers vs Nuggets Predictions, Picks & Odds - Game 1

The first round of the NBA playoffs tips off tonight, and the final Game on the board is a marquee matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets are the defending NBA champions, and they are -310 favorites to win this best-of-seven series against the Lakers, who had to beat the Pelicans in the play-in round to secure a postseason berth.

NBA odds have the Nuggets installed as 7.5-point home favorites for Game 1 of this series. Here are my best free Lakers vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, April 20.

Lakers vs Nuggets predictions

My best bet
Lakers +7.5 (-110 at bet365)

My analysis

The Denver Nuggets have owned the Los Angeles Lakers lately, going 3-0 SU and ATS against them this season and sweeping them in the Western Conference finals last year. That said, the Lakers actually covered in Denver during the first two games of that series (covering spreads of +7.5 and +5, respectively), and they lost Game 4 in a razor-close contest at Crypto.com Arena.

While the Nuggets are essentially the exact same team as a year ago, the Lakers are better constructed and have found a lineup that meshes well with each other in 2023-24. Although L.A. doesn't have Denver's depth (especially with Christian Wood and Jarred Vanderbilt sidelined), that becomes less of a factor in the playoffs when rotations are shortened and stars rarely come off the floor. 

Keep in mind that the Lakers enter the postseason with plenty of momentum, having gone 12-3 SU and 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games. They are also 40-26 with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the lineup.

The Nuggets are obviously a very good team in their own right, finishing the regular season with a 57-25 record and a net rating of +5.5. However, they aren't built to take advantage of two of the Lakers biggest flaws: turnovers and transition defense. Denver is just 26th in the league in opponent turnover rate and ranks 28th in average possession length, so they aren't going to pile up points on the fast break. That should help the Lakers keep Game 1 within the number. 

Lakers vs Nuggets same-game parlay (SGP)

Davis doesn't always log a ton of minutes during the regular season but he seldom comes off the floor in the playoffs. Davis averaged 26.8 ppg in 41.2 mpg in the conference finals against Denver last year. When you look at the eight most recent games where AD played 30+ minutes, he scored at least 30 points in five of them.

These teams have faced off twice since the start of the New Year, with Jamal Murray dropping 29 points and dishing out 11 assists in February while scoring 24 points with 11 assists last month. While those assist numbers are extremely impressive, they are also out of the ordinary for Murray, who tends to shoot more during the postseason. 

Since 2020, Murray has averaged 26.3 ppg across 39 playoff contests, and he averaged 32.5 ppg in the Western Conference Finals versus the Lakers last year. Taking the Over on Murray's points and backing the Lakers on the spread creates a nice multiplier for this SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-Game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lakers vs Nuggets odds

Lakers vs Nuggets live odds

Lakers vs Nuggets opening odds

• Spread: Los Angeles +7 | Denver -7
• Moneyline: Los Angeles +220 | Denver -270
• Over/Under: Over 222.5 | Under 222.5

Lakers vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

• This spread opened with the Nuggets at -7 and while that ticked up to -7.5, buyback on the Lakers has brought it down to -7 at several books as of Friday afternoon.
• The O/U opened at 222.5 before shifting to 224. Denver plays at slow pace but L.A. plays at the fourth-fastest tempo in the NBA.
• The Nuggets have gone 33-8 at home with an average scoring margin of +9.8 ppg.
• The Nuggets were 5-point faves when these teams last played in Denver in October. When they previously faced off in L.A. last month, the Lakers were 1-point favorites with Murray listed as questionable.

Lakers vs Nuggets trend

The Lakers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 games (+23.50 Units / 25% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Nuggets.

Lakers vs Nuggets game info

Lakers vs Nuggets latest injuries

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